000 AXNT20 KNHC 142237 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: Earlier scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of gale- force winds SW of an occluded low pressure system of 1000 mb located N of the forecast region near 31N38W. Strong to gale- force W to NW winds are noted from 24N to 31N between 36W and 40W. Combined with wind waves, seas within these winds range from 15 to 18 ft. A cold front is associated with this low and extends from 31N30W to 20N45W to 21N54W. A large area of 12 to 18 ft in NW swell follows the front covering the waters N of 25N E of 47W. Over the next 24 hours, the low pressure will move eastward. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force in a few hours, but a large area of fresh to strong NW winds will persist with seas 12 ft or greater dominating the waters N of 24N and E of 46W. The swell event will continue to propagate southward across the waters E of 50W tonight and Mon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by early Mon afternoon. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A frontal boundary will stall along the Texas coast tonight through Mon morning before pushing southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. Weak low pressure will form along this front over the central Gulf and track northeastward. In response, strong to gale force northerly winds and rough seas will follow this cold front across the NW Gulf on Tue morning, ending by Tue afternoon. Rough seas will build across the NW Gulf on Tue and subside by early Wed morning. Meanwhile, gale force winds will also develop along the coast of Tampico and Veracruz by Tue afternoon as the front pushes south of these areas. Winds will quickly diminish below gale force near Tampico by Tue evening, and diminish near Veracruz by Tue night into early Wed morning. Seas will build to near 14 ft in the SW Gulf Tue through Tue night, subsiding by Wed niportion of the cold front extending off the Florida coast from near Bermuda to 28N72W, then stationary to the Florida Straits. The ght. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 11W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is along the coast of Texas with a 1019 mb low pressure located near the Galveston/Houston area. Moderate NE winds are noted behind the front. High pressure of 1024 mb over SW Georgia dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail N of 27N while moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen S of 27N. An area of moderate to fresh NE with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the waters S of 24N between 84W and 89W, including the Yucatan Channel, where a stationary front is analyzed. Strong winds aloft, associated with a subtropical jet stream branch, are advecting abundant tropical moisture from central Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and into north and central Florida. This pattern is favorable for generating areas of rain with embedded showers. For the forecast, the stationary front extending across the Yucatan Channel will lift north as a dissipating warm front over the eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will stall along the Texas coast tonight through Mon morning before pushing southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. Weak low pressure will form along this front over the central Gulf, and track northeastward. In response, strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system across the Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds may reach gale force over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northern Gulf Fri and move across the Gulf through late Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends over the Yucatan Peninsula. Low level clouds with some shower activity is associated with the front, but mainly over the Yucatan Channel. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are noted elsewhere across the basin. High pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trades over most of the east and central Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are over the NW Caribbean E of the above mentioned stationary front. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 7 ft near the coast of Colombia and 4 to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift north of the region as a warm front on Mon. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across mainly the central basin from tonight through midweek. These winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near- gale force during the nights, possibly reaching minimal gale- force Wed night. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel on Wed and stall into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to near 28N72W where it becomes stationary, then continues SW across the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms, is noted behind the front. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are in the wake of the front. As previously mentioned, another cold front extends from 31N30W to 20N45W to 21N54W. A band of showers and thunderstorms is just ahead of the front N of 21N to 24W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted behind the front N of 26N and E of 36W. Strong to gale- force winds and a significant swell event follow the front. Please read the Special Features section above for more details. Farther east, a cold front stretches from the Madeira Islands to the western Canary Islands to 23N24W. An earlier altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 to 12 ft behind this front. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs from 25N18W to 14N20W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft dominates most the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and E of 35W based on altimeter data. For the forecast, a portion of the front located off the Florida coast, north of 28N and east of 70W, will continue east of the area through Tue, while the southern portion west of 70W will lift north as a dissipating warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed. $$ AReinhart