000
AXNT20 KNHC 131641
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Persistent large northerly swell is going to sustain seas of 12 to 14
ft, north of 23N and east of 45W through early this evening. Two 
low-pressure systems are expected to merge into one near 33N38W 
tonight. This new low will deepen rapidly while moving 
southeastward, causing strong to gale-force NW winds north of 28N 
and east of 48W late tonight. The combination of existing 
northerly swell and building wind waves will cause seas north of 
26N and west of 48W to peak at 14 to 22 ft. Once the low begins to
gradually weaken late Sun afternoon, both winds and seas should 
slowly subside Sun evening through Mon. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE GALE WARNING:
METEO-FRANCE is forecasting gale winds in the marine zone of
IRVING until 15Z today. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High
Seas Warning at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra 
Leone near Freetown, continuing southwestward to 07N10W. The ITCZ 
continues southwestward from 07N10W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 04N to 09N east 
of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed along the 
ITCZ from 03N southward between 35W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 23N85W and 
continues as a stationary front to near Cancun, Mexico. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas are found behind this front 
over the northeastern and central Gulf, including the eastern Bay 
of Campeche. For the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, The above-mentioned cold front will stall over 
the Yucatan Channel Sun. Winds and seas over the northeast Gulf 
will diminish today, but increase across the southeast Gulf Sun as
high pressure builds north of the front. The boundary will lift 
north as a dissipating warm front over the eastern Gulf Mon. 
Meanwhile, another front will stall along the northern Gulf from 
the Florida Big Bend to south Texas Sat and Sun. Weak low pressure
will form along the front over the northeast Mexico Mon. Looking 
ahead, strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow a cold 
front moving across the Gulf late Tue through Wed, as the low 
pressure moves to the northeast of the region. Winds may reach 
gale force over the far west- central and southwest Gulf along the
coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night as the front moves south.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Gulf of Mexico across the 
Yucatan Channel to near Punta Gorda, Belize. Moderate southerly 
winds and seas are noted in the NW Caribbean. High pressure north 
of the basin continues to promote moderate to fresh E winds and 
moderate seas across the south-central part of the basin. 
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a frontal boundary is stalling across the 
Yucatan Channel today. High pressure building north of the front 
will support fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across 
mainly the south-central Caribbean from late Sun through mid week.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the Yucatan 
Channel by late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the Gale 
Warning and Significant Swell event in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends off the northeast coast of Florida from 
31N80W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are observed east of the front to 75W, 
north of 22N. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are present ahead of 
the front to 70W veering to NW behind the front. Moderate to rough
seas prevail north of 27N between 70W and the east coast of 
Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to 
moderate seas are present from 70W east to 53W around a 1021 mb 
high pressure centered near 26N59W. 

Another cold front extends across the central Atlantic from a 
triple point near 32N38W, curving westward to 27N61W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is observed south of the front 20N 
and east to 29W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals a small area 
of strong NW winds behind the front north of 30N between 40W and 
42W and moderate to fresh W to NW winds north of 24N between 35W 
and 53W. Farther east, a stationary front stretches southwestward 
from 31N16W to 17N36W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
east of this feature to the West African coast, north of 07N. 
Moderate to fresh S to SW prevail north of 25N and east of 35W to 
17W. Across the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate trades 
and moderate to rough seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the front off the northeast coast of Florida 
will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba early Sun. The portion of 
the front north of 27N and east of 70W will continue east of the 
area through Tue, while the southern portion west of 70W will lift
north as a dissipating warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another 
front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach 
from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed.

$$
Nepaul