000 AXNT20 KNHC 122322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 987 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores producing gale to strong gale force winds is producing an area of rough to very rough NW swell north of 17N and between 17W and 44W. Peak seas of 20 ft are noted along 30N between 28W and 35W. As the low pressure system lifts north, seas will subside over the weekend, with 12 ft seas mainly north of 20N by tomorrow morning and continuing to subside throughout Saturday. Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: Another area of strong area of low pressure supporting gale force winds along 30N in the central Atlantic Sat night into Sun. This will generate an area of rough to very rough seas. Seas above 12 ft will reach the area by late Saturday night and extend to 25N and between 33W and 50W by late Sunday morning. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning, moving rapidly across the basin. Gale force winds are noted following the front in the NW Gulf offshore Texas. As this front sinks southeastward across the western Gulf this evening, gale force winds will continue across the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas will peak at 8 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. This front is going to move southeast of the Gulf late tonight into early Sat morning, which will allow winds across the west- central and southwest Gulf to decrease below gale force late this evening. Seas will fall below 8 ft by Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about the Gale Warning and the Significant Swell Event. EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, in the western part of the marine zone of IRVING, from 13/00Z to 13/12Z. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Warning, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 08N13W and continues to 04N30W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 32W and 50W. Similar convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 14W and 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico. As of 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Outside of the gale force winds, widespread fresh to strong southerly winds are noted over most of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy observations note seas of 7 to 12 ft in the north-central and northwest basin, highest off the southeast Texas coast. Across the rest of the basin, seas range 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the southwest basin. For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast and stall from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. Winds will reach gale force through the early evening from the Texas coast to off Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front elsewhere across the Gulf into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, another front may enter the northwestern Gulf by late Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Wed night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this second front, with winds possibly reaching gale force over the west- central and southwest Gulf Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1020 mb high at the central Atlantic near 25N54W is supporting mostly moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the central Caribbean. Fresh SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are also noted in the NW Caribbean. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper- level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the central Caribbean this morning. Winds and seas will diminish this evening as the high shifts eastward, ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and moderate seas over the northwestern Caribbean will pulse tonight ahead of this cold front, which is expected to weaken and stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will resume across the central basin Sun night into mid week as high pressure develops north of the region. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the Yucatan Channel by late Wed ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event and Gale Warning. A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N58W to 28N72W, where it transitions to a warm front and extends to near St. Augustine, Florida. No significant convection is noted along this boundary at this time. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted off the northeast Florida coast where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Across the rest of the boundary, moderate southerly winds are south of the warm front, and moderate easterly winds are noted north of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, a cold front, related to the low pressure system supporting the east Atlantic significant swell event, extends from 31N17W to 16N32W. A shearline extends from 16N32W to 14N59W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are behind the front to 30W. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted behind a surface trough that extends from 30N27W to 19N35W. Outside the Significant Swell area, seas of 8 to 11 ft extend from 10N to 17N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles. Another area of 8 to 11 ft seas is from 20N to 31N between 55W and 43W. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force southerly winds and building seas will follow a warm front lifting northward across the waters north of the Bahamas and west of 70W through tonight. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, followed by NW winds. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds eastward along 30N following the front. The front will weaken into Mon as it lifts northward as a warm front across the Bahamas. Looking ahead, SW winds will increase north of 27N Tue ahead of another cold front may move off the northeast Florida coast by late Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front north of 27N as the front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Wed night. $$ AReinhart