000 AXNT20 KNHC 111102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The associated pressure gradient between a cold front extending from 31N22W to 17N42W and high pressure centered to the SE of Bermuda will continue to support gale force W to NW winds N of 29N between 35W and 42W through this morning. However, large NW swell currently peaking at 23 ft, which has been generated by the storm system associated with this front will continue to exceed 12 ft through the end of the week. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri and below strong force Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N32W and to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm either side of the Monsson/ITCZ axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure of 1018 mb and its associated ridge dominate the basin this morning, providing gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern Gulf late today ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on Mon, followed by gale-force winds over the western Gulf Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure well to the SE of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder eastern half of the basin where seas remain in the 5-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with 3-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a frontal trough extending from western Cuba to the western Gulf of Honduras will dissipate this morning. High pressure building in the wake of the frontal trough will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to resume Sun into Mon night as high pressure develops to the NE of Puerto Rico. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas over the NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri night ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Feature section for details about the central Atlantic gale warning and associated significant swell. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N68W and continues southwestward to 28N73W, where it becomes a stationary front to western Cuba. No deep convection is noted near this front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are found ahead of the front to 58W and north of 28N. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7-12 ft are present behind the front. The highest seas are occurring near 31N72W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 18N43W, where it becomes a shear line that continues westward to near the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the front in the far NE Atlantic. Aside from the gale-force winds and very rough seas discussed in the Special Features section, fresh to near gale-force winds are noted behind the front, east of 47W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured fresh to strong NE winds north of the shear line to 23N and east of 64W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by broad ridging that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 18N and west of 40W. Seas are 7-10 ft in the area described. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas to 12 ft accompany a cold front extending from 31N68W to 27N72W where it stalls and then continues SW to western Cuba. Winds will diminish through tonight, however large swell will linger north of 27N into Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight, and then stationary from there to western Cuba. The northern portion of the front north of 27N will continue to move east of the area through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front across the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas off northeast Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front may move off the northeast coast Mon. $$ Ramos