000 AXNT20 KNHC 100453 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from SW Florida to NE Yucatan. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms precede the boundary in the SE Gulf, also producing very gusty winds. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force westerly winds in the eastern Gulf, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE Gulf. Seas in these waters are peaking near 15 ft. The cold front will move out of the basin late tonight. The strong to gale-force winds over much of the eastern Gulf will diminish after midnight tonight. Seas in the Gulf will subside to below 12 ft around sunrise Wed and below 8 ft by Wed evening. Western Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N79W to the Space Coast of Florida. The front is accompanied by a severe squall line containing extremely strong wind gusts. Gale force winds will continue north of 28N and west of 69W through early Wed morning, with frequent gusts to storm force north of 30N tonight. Rough to very rough seas are found north of 26N, peaking near 19 ft off NE Florida. The front will reach from near 31N73.5W to 24N81W early Wed, then weaken Wed evening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. The squall line along the front will continue to contain severe wind gusts through tonight, north of 26N, before weakening significant after sunrise Wed. Central and East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N34W and continues southwestward to 23N43W and to 21N56W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted east of the cold front, especially west of 30W and north of 23N. Strong to gale- force winds are present north of 25N and between 30N and 53W. The gale-force winds will slide eastward through late Wed, reaching 25W and mainly north of 27N. Meteo France has issued a Gale Warning for the Meteor marine zone through 11/00 UTC. An expansive area of 12 ft seas or greater dominates the entire waters behind the front to 61W, with seas in excess of 20 ft where the gales are occurring. Peak seas are around 24 ft near 31N45W. This long period NW swell will cause hazardous seas to spread further, reaching areas N of 15N and E of 50W by Thu. These very rough seas are likely to persist through the week and the NE waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from from 06N20W to 04N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 17W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the NE Gulf. As of 0300 UTC, a robust cold front extends from SW Florida to NE Yucatan. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms precede the boundary in the SE Gulf, also producing very gusty winds. Outside of the NE Gulf, fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring east of 94W. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a strong cold front extends from Ft. Myers, FL to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W. The squall line with the front over the far southeast Gulf is beginning to weaken. Near-gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force over much of the eastern Gulf will diminish after midnight tonight. Seas in the Gulf will subside to below 12 ft around sunrise Wed and below 8 ft by Wed evening. The cold front will move southeast of the basin late tonight, between midnight and sunrise. High pressure will move from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico Wed through Thu. SE to S winds gradually increase across the basin Thu and Thu night as the next cold front approaches the coast of Texas. This front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by late Fri, and from Naples, FL to Cancun, Mexico early Sat before weakening. Strong to near-gale force winds will follow this front across the western and central Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching gale force over the far western Gulf Fri. Conditions improve Sat night as high pressure builds over the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1031 mb high pressure system centered north of Bermuda extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring between Jamaica and Colombia near 15N75W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. No deep convection is noted in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging north of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds across the central Caribbean through tonight. Winds over the most of the central Caribbean will then diminish to fresh, although strong winds will continue to pulse nightly near the coast of Colombia through the week. A cold front entering the Yucatan Channel will weaken significantly tonight. SE winds will increase to fresh to strong from the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel Thu night and early Fri as the next cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow down and weaken significantly as it approaches the Yucatan Channel Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Storm Warning offshore NE Florida and a Gale Warning in the northern parts of the central and eastern basin. A strong cold front extends from the coast of North Carolina to the Space Coast of Florida, entering the tropical Atlantic near 31N79W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the front, west of 73W. Outside of the gale and storm- force winds, fresh to near gale-force southerly winds are present across the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. Rough to very rough seas are prevalent in the waters described. Farther east, a cold front enters the basin near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 23N43W and to 21N56W, followed by a surface trough to 22N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found east of the cold front, especially west of 30W and north of 23N. Outside of the gale-force winds, fresh to bear gale-force winds are present behind the cold front to 55W. Fresh to near gale-force southerly winds are evident ahead of the front to 25W and north of 26N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure system north of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridging and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trades south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near and east of Barbados. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N79W to 28.5N80.5W. The front is accompanied by a severe squall line containing extremely strong wind gusts. Gale force winds will continue north of 28N and west of 69W through early Wed morning, with frequent gusts to storm force north of 30N tonight. The front will reach from near 31N73.5W to 24N81W early Wed, then weaken Wed evening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. The squall line along the front will continue to contain severe wind gusts through tonight, north of 26N, before weakening significant after sunrise Wed. Elsewhere, large northerly swell is occurring across the waters east of 65W, with seas heights of 10 to 15 ft. The swell will gradually subside over the next few days, and seas across the entire area will subside significantly Thu into Thu night as high pressure builds over the area. Southerly winds begin to increase off northeast Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. The front is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Strong winds are expected on both sides of the front N of 27N, along with building seas. $$ Delgado