000 AXNT20 KNHC 092304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. N of 24N, along and up to 90 nm E of this front, severe thunderstorms with high winds and frequent lightning are causing hazard marine conditions. Gale force SW winds are also occurring in this region, even where thunderstorms are not present. Behind the front, N of 28N and E of 89W, gale force westerly winds are occurring. Seas ahead of the front are 8 to 11 ft, with 12 to 18 ft behind it, where the gales are occurring. This cold front is moving quickly east, and will move out of the basin this evening. Thus, severe thunderstorms and the gale conditions will end tonight, with quickly improving conditions Wed. WEST ATLANTIC STORM WARNING: Southerly winds ahead of a cold front that is currently crossing Florida are reaching 30 to 40 kt with higher gusts, N of 28N and W of 74W. As the cold front enters the waters tonight, southerly winds ahead of it will increase further, from gales to storm-force, mainly for areas N of 30N between 75W and 78W. Gale conditions will prevail over a much larger area tonight, N of 27N and eastward to about 70W. Behind the front, westerly gales will also develop N of 29N. Seas in the Storm Warning are will be near 15 to 20 ft, with a wide are of 12 to 18 ft seas expected in and near where the gales occur. The associated cold front will move quickly east tonight and Wed, with a line of severe thunderstorms with hazardous winds and seas impacting waters ahead of it. Behind the front, conditions will gradually improve Wed and Wed night. CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A cold front extends from 31N35W to 22N50W. Behind this front, an area of NW gales are present N of 28N between 40W and 48W. These gales will expand SE and impact waters N of 26N, eastward to 35W, through Wed night, before gradually subsiding as the cold front moves farther away into the eastern Atlantic. An expansive area of 12 ft seas or greater dominates the entire waters behind the front, E of 60W. with seas in excess of 20 ft where the gales are occurring. This long period NW swell will cause hazardous seas to spread further, reaching areas N of 15N and E of 50W by Thu. These very rough seas are likely to persist through the week and the NE waters. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details about the three situations. EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: As the aforementioned cold front moves into the eastern Atlantic E of 35W, the gale force winds will follow. Meteo-France is forecasting gale-force winds at 10/0600 UTC and at 10/1200 UTC for Marine Zone METEOR. Please refer to the Meteo-France forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/ display/bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240109082239672364 for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N17W 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W, to 01N30W 01N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on gale- force winds. A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the aforementioned gale conditions, fresh to strong SW winds encompass waters SE of the boundary, with strong NW winds extending W behind the front to 95W. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail over the far western Gulf. Severe convection associated with the front is also described above, with the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico void of convection as strong high pressure builds toward the area. Seas in the northern Gulf are 12 to 16 ft, with seas of 8 to 11 ft elsewhere behind the cold front, and 6 to 9 ft ahead of the front. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico this evening, then move southeast of the basin late tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. This front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front, possibly reaching gale force over the west-central Gulf Fri. Conditions improve Sat and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western Gulf, although fresh NE winds will linger in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trades and 8 to 11 ft seas dominate the central basin, with fresh to strong winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in the east. In the western Caribbean winds are moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft. No significant convection nor features are present in the basin this evening. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to near-gale force NE to E winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean through late Thu night. Fresh SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will persist through early this evening as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly once it reaches the Yucatan Channel later tonight, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate by early Wed morning as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. Southeasterly winds will increase over the western Caribbean to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Storm Warning offshore NE Florida and a Gale Warning in the northern parts of the central and eastern basin. Aside from these areas, A cold front extends from 31N35W to 22N50W. Strong NE winds are present within about 120 nm behind the front, with fresh NE winds elsewhere behind the front and extending to 65W. To the W of 65W, strong SE return flow has developed. South of the frontal boundary and elsewhere S of 20N, mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate waters N of the front, with 7 to 10 ft seas to the S. Aside from convection associated with the ITCZ, described in the section above, the only convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of the cold front, N of 25N. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida early this evening. S to SW winds ahead and behind this second front, north of 29N between 70W and 80W will reach gale to storm force late this evening and will last into Wed morning. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the frontal passage across offshore Florida from late this afternoon through tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase off northeast Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front. $$ Konarik