000 AXNT20 KNHC 090525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from SW Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. The front will reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, then move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Strong to gale-force winds are occurring over much of the Gulf, especially north of 22N. Seas in these waters are 8-18 ft, with the highest seas occurring off the mouth of the Mississippi River. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with higher gusts are expected on both sides of the front through Tue evening. A line of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is developing ahead of the front. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms with very strong wind gusts is expected to intensify tonight after midnight along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front, when it will extend from the coast of Mississippi to offshore SE Louisiana. The squall line will continue to bring severe gusts through Tue as it moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Rough seas are found west of 70W, forecast to become very rough Tue morning and peak near 18 ft late Tue. Rough to very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the frontal passage offshore Florida from late Tue afternoon through Tue night. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N48W to 23N69W. Strong to near gale-force winds currently exist on either side of the front north of 26N and between 37W and 65W. Additionally, very large NW swell are occurring in association with this front. Seas greater than 12 ft are present north of 25N and between 25W and 70W. By Tue afternoon, the front will extend from 31N36W to 21N60W. While there should be little change in the winds, the very large swell should reach down to 22N and east of 62W. By late Tue, gale-force NW winds behind the front should extend southward into our waters north of 25N east of 50W with peak seas of around 25 ft. By Wed night, the gale-force winds will have moved east of our 35W boundary, while very large swell should still be occurring north of 18N east of 50W. These swell will continue while very gradually diminishing until Sat. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia support gale force NE to ENE winds tonight within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas in the south-central Caribbean will build to 12 ft Tue morning. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist for the rest of the week. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about the three situations. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from from 06N18W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and east of 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warnings for the northern, central and SW Gulf. As of 0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from SW Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. A line of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is developing ahead of the front and will affect the northern and NE Gulf tonight into Tue. Winds and seas north of 21N are discussed in the Special Features section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast starting Wed morning, the aforementioned cold front will reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, then move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with higher gusts are expected on both sides of the front through Tue evening. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms with very strong wind gusts is expected to intensify tonight after midnight along and within 30 nm ahead of the cold front, when it will extend from the coast of Mississippi to offshore SE Louisiana. The squall line will continue to bring severe gusts through Tue as it moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Conditions improve Sat and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western Gulf, although fresh NE winds will linger in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning off Colombia. A 1033 mb high pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic states in the United States extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, the ridge also supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the north- central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the western Caribbean, mainly west of 84W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Caribbean. No deep convection is evident across the basin, however, pockets of low- level moisture move westward with the trades producing isolated showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia will support gale force NE to ENE winds tonight within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will continue through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by Wed afternoon, although winds will still pulse to strong at night in the south-central basin through late week. Southeasterly winds will increase over the western Caribbean to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warnings in the western and central Atlantic waters. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 23N69W, then becoming a stationary front to the Florida Keys. Fresh to near gale-force winds are present behind the frontal boundary, along with rough to very rough seas. Fresh to near gale-force winds are also found ahead of the front, mainly north of 27N and west of 35W. Rough to very rough seas are evident in the area described. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of the stationary front and west of 65W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under broad ridging, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic states and a 1023 mb high pressure system between the Azores and Madeira Island. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridging and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trades south of 20N and west of 25W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 15N55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 26N55W to 23N69W, and continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys. Strong winds will continue behind the front north of 27N and east of 64W as it moves eastward. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 27N and west of 70W as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the frontal passage offshore Florida from late Tue afternoon through Tue night. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front. $$ Delgado