000 AXNT20 KNHC 082317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A warm front extends from the Straits of Florida northwestward to south-central Louisiana. It will continue to lift north- northeastward through Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly along and north of the warm front, with the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms along and just north of the northern border of the offshore water zones. A very strong cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Tue evening, then move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Near gale to gale force winds are developing over most of the Gulf north of about 25N. Gusts to strong gale force speeds are expected over the northern Gulf. Near gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, through Tue evening, with several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms is likely to occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A strong cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas at 24N75W. Winds to near gale currently exist on either side of the front north of 27N east of 65W. Additionally, very large NW swell are occurring in association with this front north of 30N east of 65W. By tomorrow afternoon, the front will extend from 31N36W to 21N60W. While there should be little change in the winds, the very large swell should reach down to 24N east of 62W. Tomorrow night gale- force NW winds behind the front should extend southward into our waters north of 25N east of 45W with peak seas of around 25 ft. By Wed night, the gale-force winds will have moved east of our 35W boundary, while very large swell should still be occurring north of 18N east of 50W. These swell will continue while very gradually diminishing until Sat. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about the three situations. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-06N east of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds. A warm front extends from 30N94W near the LA-TX border southeastward to 24N80W in the Florida Straits. Gale-force SE to S winds are occurring south of the front. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted northeast of the front. Seas are up to 14 ft in the central Gulf. For the forecast starting Wed morning, conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow in the wake of this front. Conditions improve Sat and Sat night as high pressure builds over the western Gulf, however, fresh to locally strong northeast winds will linger in the southeastern Gulf and near and in the Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing fresh to strong E trades across the central Caribbean with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night, then weaken Sat and Sat night as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the Western Atlantic and Central Atlantic Gale Force Wind Warnings. A strong cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas at 24N75W. Winds to near gale currently exist on either side of the front north of 27N east of 65W. Additionally, very large NW swell are occurring in association with this front north of 30N east of 65W. Scattered showers are occurring within 30 NM of the front. Elsewhere winds are fresh or weaker with seas of 8-12 ft except 4-7 ft from 20N-29N west of 50W. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N66W to 24N73W, and continues as a stationary front to along the north coast of Cuba. Fresh to strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north of 28N and east of 73W as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near 26N55W to 24N65W and stationary to 23N80W this evening, then become weakening stationary Tue evening from 20N55W to near 22N65W. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms is likely to occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front. $$ Landsea