000 AXNT20 KNHC 081747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Southerly gale-force winds are in the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico today. A warm front will be stretching across the Gulf this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will move to the Texas coast on Tuesday morning. Gale-force winds will be on either side of the cold front during the next 24 hours or so. The sea heights will be ranging from 10 feet to 17 feet during the 24 hours or so. The peak sea heights will reach 14 feet to 17 feet in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts are likely, especially in the NE and in the north central Gulf of Mexico, between this afternoon and when the cold front passes. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Southerly winds will increase to gale-force off the coast of northeastern Florida on Tuesday morning. This will be happening in advance of a cold front that is expected to move off the northeastern Florida coast on Tuesday night. Expect the winds to reach 40 knots. The sea heights will build to 13 feet to 21 feet in the waters that are to the north of 28N and to the west of 69W on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The conditions will improve quickly on Wednesday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Earlier gale-force winds, that were along the coast of Colombia between 73W and 75W, have been slowing down, and those winds will continue to be less than gale-force through tonight. Expect the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 10N to 17N between 70W and 81W, with the strong to near gale-force winds, for the next 24 hours or so. ...SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The forecast consists of: sea heights to range from 20 feet to 25 feet, from Monday night through Wednesday, north of 24N between 29W and 59W. The situation now consists of a cold front, that passes through 31N59W 25N70W, to 24N76W in the Bahamas. A surface trough is 300 nm to 400 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front from 20N northward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 27N northward between 50W and the cold front. Fresh to strong N winds are from the cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 50W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 50W westward. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N22W to 25N30W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N30W to 21N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are to the north of the line that passes through 31N22W 25N30W 23N40W beyond 31N53W. Rough seas are elsewhere to the north of the line 10N60W 18N40W 24N30W 31N20W. Moderate or slower winds are from 18N northward from 50W eastward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about the three situations. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, 05N22W 04N26W 04N34W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 07N from 30W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds. A developing warm front stretches from the central Gulf of Mexico toward NW Cuba. This boundary is at the southwestern end of the 31N59W-to-Bahamas cold front. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 27N to 29N between 88W and 91W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate is in much of the rest of the Gulf from 91W eastward. Broken to overcast high level clouds cover the SW corner of the area, and they continue beyond the NE Gulf. Isolated moderate is in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Rough to very rough seas are in the NW corner of the Gulf. Rough seas are in the central sections of the area from east to west. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area. The exception is for slight to moderate seas in the coastal waters of Florida. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are in the eastern half of the area. A developing warm front extends from the western tip of Cuba northwestward to near 24N91W. The front will lift north- northeastward through Tue. It will be accompanied by scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to strong to near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the northern Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near- gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, Mon through Tue evening, with several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow in the wake of this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the weakening gale-force winds. Earlier gale-force winds, that were along the coast of Colombia between 73W and 75W, have been slowing down, and those winds will continue to be less than gale-force through tonight. Expect the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 10N to 17N between 70W and 81W, with the strong to near gale-force winds, for the next 24 hours or so. Rough seas are within at least 300 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the areas. The exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters that are from NE Nicaragua toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the area. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Gale force winds currently occurring near the coast of Colombia will diminish below gale force around sunrise this morning. Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds, and for details about the Significant Swell Event. Fresh NE winds are to the south of the line 18N60W 18N57W 19N45W 18N32W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N59 to the central Bahamas, and continues as a stationary front to near Havana, Cuba. Fresh to strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north of 28N and east of 73W as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near 27N55W to 24N70W and stationary to 24N80W this evening, then become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 25N74W. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms will occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. $$ MT/JA