000 AXNT20 KNHC 080449 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale force over the north-central Gulf of Mexico by Mon afternoon, associated with a warm front moving across the northern Gulf ahead of a cold front approaching from the Southern Plains. The cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico Mon night, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Expect winds to gale force along with rough to very rough seas Mon night and Tue, both ahead and following the front north of 26N, and over the western Gulf off the Mexican states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Conditions will quickly improve early Wed. Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale force off the coast of northeast Florida Tue morning ahead of a cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. Expect winds to 40 kt with seas building as high as 19 ft over the water north of 28N and west of 75W on Tue. Conditions will quickly improve Wed. Caribbean Gale warning: Strong high pressure north of the area supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena tonight into early Mon. Seas will reach as high as 13 ft in this area. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela through the week. Atlantic Significant Swell: A strong low pressure in the far north Atlantic continues to produce a large area of northerly swell, resulting in seas greater than 12 ft north of 22N and between 30W and 52W. This area of swell will diminish slightly in areal extent through tonight, but another group of reinforcing swell will start to move south of 31N tonight and early Tue. The combined areas of swell will cover the area north of 28N between 25W and 65W, with wave ranging from 12 ft to as high as 22 ft by Mon night. The swell will cover the area north of 24N between 35W and 65W by late Tue. please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 02N33W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 12W and 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the northern Gulf waters. A stationary front is draped across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel, northern Yucatan and across the Bay of Campeche. No deep convection near this boundary. Farther north, an active subtropical jet stream brings mid to upper level moisture across the western and northern Gulf of Mexico waters resulting in cloudiness and isolated showers. The pressure gradient between the 1024 mb ridge over the SE United States and lower pressures across Mexico support fresh to near gale-force easterly winds over much of the Gulf. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass showing winds up to 29 kt. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the NE Gulf and south of 20N. Seas are 5-8 ft from 20N to 29N and 2-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will begin to lift northward as a warm front early Mon, accompanied by scattered strong thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to strong to near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico Mon evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the northern Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near-gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, Mon through Tue evening, with several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow in the wake of this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central Caribbean Sea, a recent scatterometer satellite pass depict moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight. Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the SW Atlantic and the Significant Swell Event. A cold front enters the southwest north Atlantic near 31N67W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to near gale-force winds are found north of 28N and between 49W and 77W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Farther east, another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W and continues to 24N33W, becoming a stationary front to 22N53W. A few showers are present ahead of the front, north of 27N. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are occurring within 90 nm to the north of the frontal boundary. Information on the seas is available in the Special Features section. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly winds south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front in the SW N Atlantic will reach from near 27N55W to 25N63W and stationary to 24N80W Mon evening, then become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 23N71W and begin to weaken. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W Mon night, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. $$ Delgado