445 AXNT20 KNHC 071802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jan 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A frontal boundary will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning. A warm front will be along 25N87W 29N95W. Expect gale-force SE winds, and sea heights to range from 10 feet to 15 feet, from 24N to 30N between 86W and 94W. Expect strong to near gale-force SE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 19N to 30N between 84W and 98W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect on Tuesday morning: SE to S gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 28N to 31N between 77W and 81W. Expect elsewhere: from 20N to 31N between 70W and 81W including in the Straits of Florida, SE to S winds 20 knots to 30 knots. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet to the NE of the Bahamas, and between the Bahamas and South Florida from 26N to 28N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... Expect tonight: gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75.5W. Expect elsewhere: from 09N to 15N between 69W and 80W, NE to E strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights from 8 feet to 11 feet. Expect in the remainder of the area from 09N to 16N between 69W and 81W, fresh winds or slower, and rough seas in E swell. The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down to less than gale-force by Monday morning. ...SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The sea heights are 12 feet and higher from 25N northward between 40W and 55W. Rough seas in general are elsewhere to the north of 31N20W 21N32W 23N48W 22N66W. A cold front passes through 31N26W to 27N30W 22N40W. The front is stationary from 22N40W, to 22N50W 21N60W 21N68W. Mostly moderate or slower winds, with some fresh winds, are to the north and to the northwest of the frontal boundary. This large swell will spread toward the east through today. The sea heights will decrease to less than 12 feet tonight from 30N southward. The next large and powerful storm system currently is about 360 nm to the east of Florida. The front will move toward the area of the existing frontal boundary during the next few days. Extremely large NW to N swell will move into the Atlantic Ocean behind the front from Monday afternoon through late this week. The forecast sea heights will range from 18 feet to 25 feet, north of 24N between 35W and 60W, from Monday night through Tuesday night. Sea heights from 12 feet to 18 feet are forecast during that time elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 68W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is from 24N northward between 20W and 32W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 70W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about the three situations. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N20W 04N30W 04N40W 04N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong generally is from 10N southward from 60W eastward...mostly from 10N southward from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds. The southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean cold front, that is about 360 nm to the east of Florida, passes through Florida from 25N to 26N, and then toward the southwest to the coast of Mexico near 20N between 96W and 97W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the NE quadrant of the area, and in the central and south central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A cold front extends from Naples, FL to 24N88W, where it becomes a stationary front to the SW Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. The cold front will become stationary early this evening from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W. The front will then move northward across the basin as a warm front tonight through early Mon, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to strong to near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico early Mon evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Gale force winds are expected to begin by late Mon morning over the north-central Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near-gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, Mon through Tue, with several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds. Rough seas are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas cover the areas that are between 64W and the coastal waters of Central America. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are within 300 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the rest of the area that is from 80W eastward. Fresh to moderate SE winds are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate E winds are in the SW corner of the area. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 07/1200 UTC are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight. SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase to fresh to strong late Mon through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds, and for details about the Significant Swell Event. A cold front is about 360 nm to the east of Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, and fresh winds are from 25N northward from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 70W westward. Rough seas are from 29N northward from the cold front westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 70W westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are from the cold front/stationary front southward, from 30W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area. A cold front extends from 31N72W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north of 27N as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near 31N68W to the Straits of Florida this evening, from near 27N55W to 23N72W and stationary to 24N80W Mon evening, and weakening as a stationary front Tue evening from near 21N55W to 23N71W. SE winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W Mon night, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to Eleuthera Island, Bahamas, but very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ MT/JA