000 AXNT20 KNHC 012259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. tonight and track eastward across the western Atlantic, reaching from 31N60W to 26N60W to 22N67W by early Wed. From Tue afternoon through Wed afternoon, W to NW winds near and behind this front will reach near-gale to gale force north of 29N between 55W and 74W. Seas under the strongest winds are expected to be 13 to 19 ft. As the front gradually weakens late Wednesday night, winds and seas will steadily decrease. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 07N12W to 04N25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 08W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Destin, FL to just south of Corpus Christi, TX. Scattered showers are near the front. 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 25N84W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are NW of the front near the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. Moderate NW winds and 3 ft seas are found over the NE Gulf. Moderate E winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to weaken tonight, allowing for the cold front to make some forward progress. The front will stall from near Tampa Bay to offshore the mouth of the Rio Grande Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Tue night. Low pressure will likely form along this front Wed and track NE to E across the northern Gulf through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms, are likely to be associated with this low and cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers are occurring over portions of the northern Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh winds over the Windward Passage will diminish tonight, then return on Tue night. High pressure building southward toward the basin will support fresh to strong winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia through the end of the week. SE to S winds will increase in the NW Caribbean Fri into Fri night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about upcoming gales. A surface high pressure ridge extends across the western Atlantic from near 31N55W to a 1022 mb high pressure center near 26N70W to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis. SW to W winds are beginning to increase north of 29N between 70W and 80W as a cold front approaches the area. To the south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds are found in the Windward Passage and southeast Bahamas. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft west of 65W. A cold front extends from 31N38W to 28.5N51W to 26N59W, stationary to 22N70W. A weak 1015 mb low pressure near 27N40W extends a surface trough SW to 20N50W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N29W. East of 65W, wind speeds are gentle to moderate, with 4 to 7 ft seas. The exception is 7 to 9 ft seas in NW swell occurring north of the cold front, north of 28N between 45W and 59W. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front from 27N55W to 22N70W will gradually dissipate by Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by Tue evening, then stall by Wed night from 25N55W to 22N70W. Strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night. Winds will reach gale force west of the front N of 30N Tue night and Wed. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast late Wed night into early Thu, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu night, then from near 27N55W to 23N61W Fri night. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on both sides of this front. $$ Hagen