569 AXNT20 KNHC 312251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 05N09.5W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 24N88W, and 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee. To the east of 92W, light to gentle winds prevail with 2 to 3 ft seas. West of 94W, moderate to fresh SSE to S return flow is occurring, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure that has been dominating Gulf of Mexico weather will slide E through tonight, allowing a cold front to move into the NW basin Mon. Moderate to fresh return flow will continue over the far W Gulf tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near the coast of NE Mexico Mon night, then stall from central Florida to the NW Gulf Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Wed, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin by midday Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Haiti near 18N73W to NE Nicaragua near 14N83W. Cloudiness containing possible isolated light showers is noted along and within 330 nm NW of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds persist within 180 nm northwest of the front, including in the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area, which extends from the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica to the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Elsewhere NW of the front over the NW Caribbean, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. To the SE of the front in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. East of 68W, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 3 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate into Mon. Fresh to strong winds behind the front, including in the Windward Passage, will diminish Mon morning. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia at night through Wed night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Thu but weaken as it enters the extreme NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to central Hispaniola near 20N70.5W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N to 23N between 70W and 75W, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Within the Windward Passage, NE winds are strong with 6-9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 7-10 ft are north of 29N between the front and 72W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near Lake Okeechobee, FL. Farther east, weakening 1014 mb low pressure is located in the central Atlantic near 24N41W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from near 31N55W to central Hispaniola will move slowly southeastward until it dissipates by Tue. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft will prevail over the waters N of 28N and E of 75W into tonight. Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, and extend from near Bermuda to the eastern tip of Cuba Tue evening, before moving east of 55W by Wed evening. Strong to near-gale force winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the front will move E of the area. High pressure will briefly build in the wake of the front. A third cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast by early Thu morning, extending from Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Thu night. $$ Hagen