000
AXNT20 KNHC 310901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 04N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N15W ti 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 06N between 09W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection
is also noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 20W and 42W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered near 23N94W dominates the Gulf waters.
Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to
locally moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range W
of 90W and 3-4 ft E of 90W. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will move eastward 
today, enabling a cold front to move into the NW Gulf Mon. 
Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the far W Gulf 
today ahead of the cold front. The front will reach from northern 
Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by Mon evening, then stall 
from central Florida to the NW Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold
front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from 
northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of
the basin Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over 
the western Gulf, with fresh winds following the front over the 
eastern Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Hispaniola to Nicaragua. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas of 7-10 ft prevail W of the front. Moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found E of the front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will stall today, and gradually 
dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail in the NW Caribbean through late today. 
High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to 
strong winds off Colombia through Wed night. Moderate to fresh 
trades are forecast Thu and Thu night for the central and eastern 
Caribbean waters. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W SW to Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to
fresh winds are W of the front. Seas area in the 8-10 ft range N
of 28N and W of the front to 75W, with seas of 5-8 ft elsewhere W
of the front. Farther east, a 1012 mb low is centered near 24N41W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm SE semicircle of the low. Moderate to fresh winds and seas
of 8-9 ft prevail within 180 nm E of the low center. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are noted elsewhere over the
discussion waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will stall from near 27N55W 
to eastern Hispaniola Mon where it will dissipate through Tue. 
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft will 
prevail over the waters N of 28N and E of 75W through late today. 
Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast 
Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late 
Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on 
either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the 
front will move E of the area. A third cold front is forecast to 
move off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda to the 
central Bahamas Thu night. 

$$
AL