716 AXNT20 KNHC 310545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa close to 06N along the Prime Meridian, through southern Liberia, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues along 04N15W 04N21W 03N29W 01N33W 01N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 23W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 24N96W. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic wind flow abounds. Moderate seas are from 90W eastward, and in the SW corner. Slight seas are elsewhere. High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. The area of high pressure will move eastward this weekend, enabling a cold front to move into the NW Gulf Mon. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the far W gulf on Sun ahead of the cold front. The front will reach from northern Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by Mon evening, then stall from central Florida to the NW Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Gulf, with fresh winds following the front over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the western sections of Haiti, to the eastern tip of Jamaica, to western Honduras. Rough seas are from Honduras to 20N from Jamaica westward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea., and in the coastal waters of Colombia. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Near gale-force northerly winds are within 180 nm to the north of the cold front between 80W and 86W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the rest of the area that is from the cold front northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to the border of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. A cold front extending from the Hispaniola to eastern Honduras will stall from Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Sun, where it will gradually dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will be found in the NW Caribbean through late Sun. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia Sun through Wed night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast Thu and Thu night for the central and eastern Caribbean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 25N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N to 25N between 36W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 150 nm on either side of the line 17N42W 24N38W 31N32W. An east-to-west oriented frontal boundary is from 31N northward from 40W eastward. Rough seas are from 21N northward between 32W and 40W. Fresh southerly winds are in the precipitation from 22N to 28N between 35W and 40W. Fresh easterly winds are from 15N to 23N between 32W and 35W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE and N winds are from 20N to 30N within 540 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure center in the W semicircle. A cold front passes through 31N59W 26N64W, beyond the western sections of Haiti, and beyond eastern Jamaica. Fresh to strong westerly winds are from 28N northward from 70W westward. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are moving through the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 23N southward between 70W and 77W. Rough seas are from 28N northward from 70W westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the cold front northwestward. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 03N to 07N between 40W and 47W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 19N to 21N between 22W and 25W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N59W SW to Hispaniola and into the NW Caribbean. The front will reach from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sun then stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon where it will dissipate through Tue. Strong winds over the NW waters will prevail tonight, with moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas to 9 ft affecting these waters through late Sun. Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the front will move E of the area. A third cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu night. $$ mt/al