000 AXNT20 KNHC 301716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Dec 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator north to 06N east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered inland over NE Mexico. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, except in the NE Gulf where winds are locally fresh. Seas are 3-6 ft, with highest seas in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the high pressure centered inland over Mexico will move over the far NW gulf later today and into the E gulf on Sun. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds will develop along the far W gulf on Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas Mon morning. The front will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by Mon evening, then stall from Cape Coral, Florida to the NW Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from Cedar Key, Florida to the Bay of Campeche Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to San Pedro Sula, Honduras. This front merged this morning with the earlier analyzed decaying stationary front. Strong NW winds are analyzed behind the front across the NW Caribbean Sea, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas have built to 7-10 ft from 15N to 20N west of 84W and 4-7 ft elsewhere behind the front. Scattered showers are evident along the frontal boundary. In the central and eastern Caribbean, trades are light to gentle and seas range from 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to affect the NW Caribbean waters behind the front as it reaches from western Hispaniola to eastern Honduras late today, and then stalls from central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua late Sun where it will start to weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night from Sun through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 25N42W. Satellite scatterometer data this morning depicted strong to near-gale force S winds from 20N to 25N between 39W and 43W. 8-10 ft seas are north of 22N between 35W and 51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 28N between 36W and 41W. Decaying frontal boundaries are in the vicinity of the low pressure. A cold front extends from 31N34W to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are along the front and behind the front over the Bahamas. Satellite scatterometer indicates moderate to fresh W winds west of the front. Seas of 7-10 ft are analyzed north of 27N between 67W and 77W, with a recent satellite altimeter pass supporting this analysis. Across the remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, trades are light to gentle and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong winds with the cold front will continue to impact the offshore waters N of 27N through tonight. However, moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas to 9 ft will continue to affect the W Atlantic offshore zones through late Sun as the front reaches from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas. $$ Mahoney