669 AXNT20 KNHC 300901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Africa close to 06N to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 03N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the SW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the SW Gulf, 3-5 ft over the NW Gulf, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf this weekend. Fresh to strong N winds and seas to 9 ft will decrease in the Bay of Campeche today. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf early next week. This front will reach from west central Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras. A reinforcing cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail W of the reinforcing front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-4 ft are found off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front from central Cuba to Belize will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late today, then stall from Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua late Sun where it will weaken. The front is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night from Sun through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from near Bermuda to NE Cuba. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N70W to central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are W of the reinforcing front and N of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds are within 60 nm east of the weakening front. Low pressure of 1010 mb is centered near 25N44W. An occluded front extends from the low NE to near 31N40W. A warm front extends from the occluded front N of the area along 32N. A cold front extends south of the occluded front to near 24N40W then southwestward to 15N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the cold front from 17N to 25N. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, are around the low N of 20N between 35W and 44W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and building seas follow the reinforcing front. This front will overtake the weakening front as it reaches from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late today, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas. $$ AL