000 AXNT20 KNHC 292318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N09W to 02N20W to 02N44W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 05W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between 1028 mb high pressure inland near the Texas Big Bend and lower pressure associated with a cold front extending from the Bahamas to the southern Yucatan Peninsula is inducing fresh NW winds across most of the basin, except fresh NE winds over the SW Gulf. The latest altimeter and buoy data indicates seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the basin, except for 3 to 5 ft over the NW corner of the Gulf. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted over the southern Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26.5N. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas building to 9 ft this evening through tonight in the Bay of Campeche. Another cold front is forecast to move into the N Gulf early next week. This front will reach from central Florida to Brownsville, TX by early Tue, then stall from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front may enter the NW Gulf Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. A reinforcing cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N81.5W to the southern Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Cloudiness with scattered showers prevails over the western Caribbean, to the west of 77W. Drier weather is found east of 77W. To the NW of the stationary front, N to NE winds are moderate to locally fresh with seas 3 to 5 ft. Within 240 nm E of the stationary front, winds are gentle with 1 to 3 ft seas. Within 120 nm of the N coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to weaken this evening. Fresh to near-gale force NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow within 180 nm behind the reinforcing cold front this weekend as it reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from Haiti near 19.5N73W to central Nicaragua near 12.5N83.5W by late Sun and weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night and on Tue night along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N74W to Nassau, Bahamas to Cuba near 22.5N80W. Strong W winds follow this front north of 28N between 75W and 80W, where seas have recently built to 8 to 10 ft. Scattered showers are occurring west of 70W to the NW Bahamas, SE Florida and the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere west of 60W, winds are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas. 1006 mb low pressure is centered near 25N46W. An occluded front extends from 26N48W to a triple point near 31.5N38W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 24N39W to 18N44.5W. A warm front extends from the triple point to 31N33W to 29N31W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 18N to 31N between 31W and 44W. Fresh to strong winds prevail across portions of the area from 21N to 31N between 35W and 50W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft range north of 20N between 35W and 55W. Elsewhere east of 60W, winds are moderate or weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the reinforcing cold front off the NE Florida coast. This front will overtake the weakening front tonight, then reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 29N55W to Hispaniola near 20N70W by late Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night, and over the western part of the area Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas. $$ Hagen