515 AXNT20 KNHC 282253 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 26N35W to 26N40W, then becomes a warm front to 1010 mb low pressure near 27N45W. From there an occluded front extends to a second 1006 mb low near 26N48W. Gale force E winds are currently north of the front between 40W and 48W. Seas are 12-14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-30N between 34W-47W. Little change in winds and seas are expected today and tonight. Gales are forecast to end by tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient relaxes and the frontal boundary slowly lifts northward. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. No significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend coast, Florida to the Mexican coast near 20N97W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are behind with 2-5 ft seas. Scattered showers are occurring within 30 NM of the front east of 84W. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast of the basin late tonight, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, reach from west central Florida to the central Gulf and to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. Yet another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba to 18N86W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Moderate NW to N winds are behind the front with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered showers are north of 19N between 80W-84W. Elsewhere, the trades are gentle to moderate with seas 1-4 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from near the Windward Passage to Honduras late Fri. Scattered showers are along the front north of 19N. A reinforcing dry cold front that is presently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern late tonight early Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow this front as it reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from south central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late Sun and weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night and on Tue night along with building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about a Central Atlantic GALE WARNING. As of 2100 UTC, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 25N78W over the N Bahamas. A cold front extends southwest of the low to central Cuba and a warm front extends east-northeast of the low to 26N74W. Scattered showers are noted in the Straits of Florida, and across the Bahamas. Winds within 120 NM of the low are fresh to strong with seas 3-5 ft over the open Atlantic waters. Aside from winds associated with the central Atlantic gale, winds over the remainder of the Atlantic waters are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the low and warm front will weaken Fri morning, and the system is forecast to be a weakening cold front that will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by early Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow a stronger front that will move off the NE Florida coast overnight. This front will overtake the weakening front as it reaches from near 31N70W to central Cuba by late Fri, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas. $$ Mahoney/Landsea