267 AXNT20 KNHC 271009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the central Atlantic over the next couple of days will induce development of a 1008 mb surface low by Thu afternoon near 25N45W along a trough. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support an area of near- gale to gale force winds into Thu evening from generally 27N to 29N between 38W and 42W. Associate combined seas will reach as high as 16 ft, accompanied by a component of NE swell. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nigeria near 06N05E to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N to 04N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure extends over the central Gulf in the wake of a cold front that moved through the basin late yesterday. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas across the Gulf. Visibility is less than 1 nm in sea fog over parts of the eastern Gulf within 20 nm of the coast between Englewood and Bonita Springs, Florida. A dense fog advisory is in effect for this area until 9 a.m. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast late today. The front will move southeast of the basin Thu night through early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun as the high pressures shifts eastward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough reaches from Cuba's Isle of Youth to near Roatan off the coast of mainland Honduras. There may be a small area of fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia, but elsewhere across the Caribbean mostly moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. The relatively light wind flow is due to a front moving through the Bahamas north of the area, breaking up the subtropical ridge that is normally in place there supporting slight stronger trade winds across the Caribbean. There is no significant convection noted anywhere across the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, the gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night through Sun, along with fresh to strong NE winds over the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic gale warning. A cold front reaches from South Carolina to the northern Bahamas to central Cuba. Fresh to strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are likely east of the front to 70W, north of 28N. Areas of sea fog are expected through 10 am this morning in the coastal waters of northeast Florida, with visibilities 1 nm or less from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach out 20 nm. Farther east, a broad mid to upper trough is moving into the central Atlantic, north of 20N between 50W and 55W. This is supporting a surface trough from 30N64W to 21N55W, and a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of the trough to 50W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft combines seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. East of that, another trough reaches from 1009 mb low pressure from 32N27W to 14N53W. A few showers may be active within 90 nm east of this trough, north of 28N. A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas persist west of this trough to 60W, north of 20N. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are active within 120 nm east of this trough, north of 25N. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second reinforcing front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night. That front will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri night, from 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, and from 29N58W to the central Dominican Republic by late Sun. $$ Christensen