181 AXNT20 KNHC 252327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic to 31N41W to 22N56W. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 17N54W. A low pressure is expected to form near 29N44W tonight. As this low deepens while moving east- northeastward, NE winds north of the low will reach near-gale to gale force Tuesday at 0600 UTC. Combined seas under the strongest winds will build and peak at 12 to 15 ft north 28N between 35W and 48W. As the low tracks east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon, these gales and rough seas will also shift eastward. Conditions should begin to improve Tuesday evening as the low gradually weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ extends from 03N11W to 04N48W. Scattered showers are noted from 00N-08N between 29W-42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is centered inland near 31N86W. A warm front extends from the low to 29N83W. A cold front extends from the low to 19N95W. A reinforcing front extends across the NW Gulf from 29N91W to 25N98W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present across the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the southeastern Gulf including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail over the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are over the northwestern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds will continue near and to the east of the warm front, over the far eastern Gulf, through early this evening before diminishing. Seas will subside tonight over the NE Gulf. A secondary cold front has entered the NW Gulf, extending from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico. Moderate N winds prevail behind the second front. The cold fronts will combine by Tue morning and extend from northern Florida to Tuxpan, Mexico, then weaken and slowly move southeast of the Gulf late Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through early Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted over western Cuba and adjacent waters in association to a deep layer trough moving ahead of the front that is located over the E Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds pulsing off Colombia where seas are reaching 8 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic Gale Warning. Scattered showers prevail across the W Atlantic W of 74W. To the E, a surface trough extends from 22N56W to 30N70W. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE Winds mainly north of 27N between 48W and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 24N between 35W-66W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere south of broad ridging over the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of NE Florida Thu evening. The combined front will extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri night. W to NW winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as the reinforcing front moves off the coast. Large NE to E swell will persist across the region mainly north of 22N and east of 65W through mid week. $$ ERA