000 AXNT20 KNHC 251737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Tight gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure SE Alabama and a 1033 mb high pressure off the northeast U.S. is sustaining near-gale SE winds with frequent gusts to gale force across the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to off Mobile Bay. Seas in these areas have subsided and range between 8 to 11 ft. As the low and its related warm front lift farther northward later this afternoon, these winds will continue to decrease. Please visit the National Weather Service website at www.weather.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic to 31N42W to 22N56W. A low pressure is expected to form along this front near 29N44W this afternoon. As this low deepens while moves east-northeastward, NE winds northwest and north of this low will reach near-gale to gale force early Tuesday morning. Combined seas under the strongest winds will build and peak at 12 to 16 ft north 27N between 35W and 50W. As the low tracks east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon, these gales and rough seas will also shift eastward. Conditions should begin to improve Tuesday evening as the low gradually weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 03N11W across 04N31W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection from 01.5N to 06.5N between 33W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above on an ongoing gale warning. A warm front extends southeastward from a 1009 mb low over Southeastern Alabama to the east-central Gulf. A cold front also curves southwestward from this same low to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are occurring near over the loop current in the east-central and southeast Gulf. Another cold front has moved over northwest Gulf, extending from western Louisiana to South Padre Island, Texas. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present across the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the southeastern Gulf including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle NW to N winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail over the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are over the northwestern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned warm front is lifting northeastward across the northeast Gulf, ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front moving through the north-central Gulf. Expect strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas through the late morning today over the northeast Gulf as the warm front moves north of the area, diminishing this afternoon through this evening. Scattered thunderstorms moving ahead of the cold front over the southeastern Gulf will continue moving eastward this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The cold front will reach from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted over western Cuba and adjacent waters in association to a deep layer trough moving ahead of the front that is located over the central Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds pulsing off Colombia where seas are reaching 8 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel by late Wed, stalling from Cuba to Honduras by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic gale warning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a stationary front that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N42W to 22N56W. A surface trough follows the stationary front from 22N56W and curves northward to 31N69W. Another surface trough is depicted ahead of the front extending from 31N40W then southwestward to 19N55.5W. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE Winds mainly north of 27N between 48W and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N west of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere south of broad ridging over the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri night. Large NE to E swell will also persist across the region mainly north of 24N and east of 65W through mid week. W to NW winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as a second, reinforcing front moves of the coast. $$ KRV