000 AXNT20 KNHC 241707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches from 31N44W to 1012 mb low pressure near 20N64W. The low pressure will deepen as a moves to the northeast along the weakening front, reaching near 28N42W as a 1009 mb low by early Tue. As a result, winds will increase to minimal gale force on the north side of the low by late Mon into early Tue, between the low pressure and strong high pressure farther north. Combined seas will build to as high as 15 to 18 ft north 28N between 40W and 46W by early Tue. Winds will diminish through late Tue while the low pressure moves farther to the northeast. Combined seas will subside more gradually with 8 to 12 ft wave heights persisting north of 26N and east of 43W through late Wed in NE swell. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 02N13W across 02N32W to 03.5N47W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 01N to 04N between 27W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Pressure gradient between a strong high pressure centered east of New England and a complex low and cold front approaching from the west over the southern Plains and northern Mexico is producing SE fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf with seas to 8 ft. A warm front extends off the coast of Texas across the NW Gulf to 27N90W. Therefore, southerly flow across the northwestern Gulf is found behind the warm front, supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the front over the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds have developed N of the aforementioned warm front. The warm front will shift N of the area today while cold front moves off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will reach from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh mainly easterly winds are found over the NW Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. In addition, isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted south of Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds are also pulsing off Colombia with seas 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off Colombia through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Caribbean will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel by late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the developing gale warning in the central Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to 31N44W, then continues to a 1012 mb low just northeast of the Virgin Islands at 20N64W. A broad upper trough extends over the region north of 20N between 40W and 70W, and is supporting several areas of convection. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the front between 50W and 58W, and from 16N to 20N between 50W and 58W east and along a surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms are also north of 25N between 62W and a surface trough near 69.5W. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds west of the front, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 28N west of the front to 60W. Altimeter satellite data also show wave heights of 8 to 11 ft west of the front over open waters, largely due to NE to E swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states and broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed. The front will reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. $$ KRV