000 AXNT20 KNHC 241042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches from 31N45W to 1013 mb low pressure near 20N64W. The low pressure will deepen as a moves to the northeast along the weakening front, reaching near 28N42W as a 1009 mb low by early Tue. As a result, winds will increase to minimal gale force on the north side of the low by late Mon into early Tue, between the low pressure and strong high pressure farther north. Combined seas will build to as high as 15 to 17 ft from 28N to 30N between 50W and 55W by early Tue. Winds will diminish through late Tue while the low pressure moves farther to the northeast. Combined seas will subside more gradually with 8 to 12 ft wave heights persisting north of 20N and east of 65W through late Wed in NE swell. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 02N12W across 03N35W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 04N to 06N between 27W and 33W, and from 04N to 06N between 50W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 03Z showed winds increasing over the eastern Gulf, south of strong high pressure centered off New England and a complex low and cold front approaching from west over the southern Plains and northern Mexico. A concurrent altimeter pass showed combined seas building to near 8 ft over the southeast Gulf as well. Buoy and platform data over the north- central Gulf indicated fresh to strong SE winds and building seas. Warm, southerly flow across the northwestern Gulf is indicative of a developing warm front over the region, supporting clusters of showers mainly to the north of the front over the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, winds may reach near-gale tonight over the northeast Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft, while the cold front moves off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf. The front will reach from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent ship observations indicate fresh to locally strong winds northwest of Grand Cayman Island, on the northern end of a surface trough reaching south of Grand Cayman to near 15N80W. Fresh to strong winds are also pulsing off Colombia. Gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the developing gale warning in the central Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic to 30N45W, then continues to a 1013 mb low just northeast of the Virgin Islands at 20N64W. A broad upper trough extends over the region north of 20N between 40W and 70W, and is supporting several areas of convection. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the front between 50W and 60W, and from 18N to 21N between 50W and 55W east of a surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms are also near 30N68W and 25N68W, near surface troughs. Recent buoy and scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted west of the front, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 28N west of the front to 60W. Buoys and altimeter satellite data also show wave heights of 8 to 11 ft west of the front over open waters, largely due to NE to E swell. Farther east, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. $$ Christensen