000 AXNT20 KNHC 240555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Africa monsoon trough remains over the continent. An ITCZ extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 02N13W across 03N30W to north of Amapa State, Brazil at 04N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface runs southwestward from near New Orleans to southeast of the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the northwestern Gulf, while thick cirrus are present over the central Gulf. A surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft exist across the central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 3 ro 5 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf. For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the north- central and northeastern Gulf will increase tonight between high pressure over the Carolinas and a complex low and cold front moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A warm front has developed ahead of the low and move northward across the northwest Gulf through Sun. Winds may reach near-gale Sun night over the northeastern Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun night, reaching from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, then from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues to dominate much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin, just offshore from northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the north-central and northwestern basin, including the Lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off Colombia through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the western basin will diminish early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to 30N46W, then continues as a stationary front to a 1015 mb low just northeast of the Virgin Islands at 20N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 40 nm northwest, and 90 nm southeast of this boundary. A pre-frontal trough is causing similar convection farther east north of 22N between 40W and 46W. A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 20N between 53W and 58W. Two troughs of low pressure embedded within the northeasterly flow are causing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas, north of 21N between 65W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additiona convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present behind the stationary/cold front, north of 21N and west to the Bahamas/Florida coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 07N to 31N between the Africa coast and stationary front/60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are present. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to dissipate later tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 22N through early Sun, and north of 24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast the middle of next week and reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. $$ Chan