050 AXNT20 KNHC 231016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Africa monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near 05N01W to 00N08W. The ITCZ continues from 00N08W to 04N45W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas over the north central Gulf, following a weak surface trough extending southward off Louisiana. The scatterometer data also indicated small area of moderate to fresh winds just north of the Yucatan Channel in the south- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 90W. Light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident west of 90W. There is no significant shower or thunderstorm activity noted at this time. For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the mainly the north- central and northeastern Gulf will increase starting tonight between high pressure over the Carolinas and a complex low and cold front moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A warm front will develop ahead of the low and move northward across the northwest Gulf tonight into Sun. Winds may reach near- gale Sun night over the northeast Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft.The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun night, reach from Cameron, Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from Cedar Key, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba and Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage, and off Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft off Colombia, and generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except for 4 to 6 ft in the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure will weaken and shift east today, allowing winds and seas to diminish slight across the basin, although fresh to strong trade winds will pulse of Colombia mainly overnight through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N46W to near Puerto Rico. A negatively tilted upper trough continues to support a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 240 nm east of the front north of 28N, although this activity seems to be gradually diminishing as the supporting upper features becomes less amplified. An earlier scatterometer pass showed a surface trough near 21N63W at the base of the upper trough, with a small area of fresh to strong surface winds. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere west of the front, with mostly moderate NE to E winds. Combined seas are 7 to 10 ft in open waters mainly due to N to NE swell lingering over the area. Similarly, mostly moderate easterly winds are evident elsewhere east of the front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE to E swell. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 22N through early Sun, and north of 24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the area. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Wed and reach from 31N75W to South Florida Wed night. Farther east, expect strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the low pressure forming near 27N45W. Reinforcing NE swell will allow combined seas to reach as high as 17 ft north of the low into mid week. $$ Christensen