167 AXNT20 KNHC 222321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 04N09W to 00N03W. The ITCZ extends westward from 00N03W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W-52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area is producing moderate or weaker winds over the Gulf, with the exception of fresh NE winds over the Florida Straits. Seas 6 to 8 ft prevail in this area. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, an approaching cold front will enhance the return flow this weekend becoming SE fresh to strong over the N central and NE Gulf. A warm front should develop near the Texas- Louisiana coastline along the northern edge of the strong SE winds Sat night into Sun night, enhancing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms in the N Gulf. The cold front should emerge from the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward reaching from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and extending from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan by Wed morning. N winds behind the front are expected to only be moderate to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near Tampico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 16N80W to 11N83W. Fresh N to NE winds are noted west of the shear line, while strong winds are pulsing E of the shearline, mainly along 73W. Seas of 8-9 ft prevail near 74W, while 6 -7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the western half of the basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate by tonight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly, the NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the NW Caribbean on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N49W to a 1015 mb low near 21N62W to 18N66W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail along the front, with seas to 10 ft W of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 22N. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the east and west Atlantic with no significant convection noted at this time. Fresh easterly winds prevail in the areas of ridging, with seas to 9 ft. In the forecast west of 55W, the front should remain to the north of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, then dissipate by Sun. Fresh NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will diminish tomorrow as high pressure north of the area weakens. Large N to NE swell should continue to affect most of the forecast waters for the next couple days. On Sun night and Mon, E to SE winds will increase from the central Bahamas to NE Florida ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Looking ahead, the cold front should move off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ ERA