672 AXNT20 KNHC 221018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N51W to eastern Puerto Rico. Behind the cold front, earlier scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong N-NE winds. Latest altimeter data indicate that seas greater than 12 ft are occurring between the front and 70W. Peak seas are 13 ft. As the NE winds in the area diminish, seas will drop below 12 ft later today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the Very Large Seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Ghana near 05N02W and continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 04N35W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is observed near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds persisted across the Straits of Florida and southeast Gulf, south of a ridge extending across the eastern United States. The buoy showed moderate to rough seas in the area as well. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today over the Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate to rough seas. The high pressure will shift east ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The front will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by Mon morning, and from Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas will precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front extends from Puerto Rico to south of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. A shear line continues to Providencia Island and the Panama Canal. A scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds west of the shear line with the strongest winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirmed maximum seas of 8 to 9 ft mainly between Jamaica and Honduras. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are evident in the remainder of the Caribbean waters west of 67W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will bring a return to more typical E trade winds through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from near 27N55W to Puerto Rico. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed about 150 nm east of the front. Divergence aloft ahead of an upper trough sustains scattered showers and isolated strong convection from 17N to 20N and between 47W and 52W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north of 28N and east of the front to 45W. A 09Z altimeter pass showed combined seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident in the rest of the Atlantic east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In the forecast west of 55W, the southern portion of the front will move across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands through at least Sat then stall and dissipate. Northerly swell will linger into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters over the next few days. Winds and seas will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off northeast Florida late on Tue. $$ Christensen