000 AXNT20 KNHC 212305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event... A cold front passes through 31N56W to near Puerto Rico at 18N66W. Behind the cold front are fresh to strong N winds. North of 25N between 59W-67W, very large seas with E swell and N wind waves are occurring. Peak seas are 13 ft. As the NE winds in the area diminish this evening, seas will drop below 12 ft late tonight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the Very Large Seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 04N08W and extends to 04N10W. From there, the ITCZ extends to 00N49W along the coast of Brazil. No significant deep convection is noted this afternoon in association with the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate to rough seas. Winds are fresh to strong over the Florida Straits and gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the SE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today over the Gulf. In the forecast, winds and seas will diminish some through early next week as the high pressure shifts east, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The front will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by Mon morning, and from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas will precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Puerto Rico near 18N66W to just south of Hispaniola near 18N71W, with a shear line extending from 18N72W to 10N79W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas to 9 ft are noted west of the shear line with the strongest winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate to fresh. Seas over the E Caribbean are 3-5 ft and 5-7 ft over the central Caribbean. While no deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean, scattered showers are present over the W and NW Caribbean to the west of the shearline. In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will bring a return to more typical E trade winds Fri through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from near 31N58W to Puerto Rico. A pre- frontal trough extends from 18N62W to 30N54W. Ahead of the trough, north of 18N between 47W-55W, scattered moderate convection is occurring. North of 25N within 300 NM of the front winds are fresh to strong. Fresh to strong winds are also noted over the central and S Bahamas as well as north of 12N and east of 30W. In addition to the large swell detailed above, 8 ft or greater seas cover most of the tropical N Atlantic, except south of 22N west of 45W. In the forecast, the southern portion of the front will move across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands through at least Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds following the front will diminish through tonight. Northerly swell will linger into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters over the next few days. Winds and seas will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida late on Tue. $$ Landsea