000 AXNT20 KNHC 202230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event... Very rough seas and fresh to strong winds prevail from 24N northward between 45W and 71W, and from 27N northward between 30W and 40W. Waveheights range from 12-16 ft N of 24N, while seas of 12-13 ft are noted in the area N of 26W. A 1051 mb high pressure center is near 46N26W. The ridge will slide eastward and weaken during the next few days. The wind speeds will slow down, and the sea heights will subside to less than 12 ft by early Fri. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the Very Rough Seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 04N09W to 03N08W. The ITCZ continues from 03N08W to 02N30W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the area, with highest speeds over the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States will continue to dominate the Gulf region the remainder of the week. As the high pressure moves eastward, SE return flow will develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across the central Caribbean from 18N74W to 10N76W. W of the front, fresh to strong NE winds are noted in latest scatterometer data, especially S of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail E of the front, with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate on Thu. Building high pressure N of the area will bring a return to more typical E trade winds on Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N65W to 20N72W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front, extending from 19N52W to 31N62W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough, mainly N of 24N. To the SE of this trough, an upper level low is enhancing convection from 16N-25N between 37W-47W. Close to this area, a surface trough is analyzed from 21N44W to 12N61W. The southern extend of a frontal boundary extends along 29N between 40W-52W with no significant convection at this time. High pressure ridge prevails across the eastern portion of the basin, mainly E of 40W. This ridge is anchored by a strong 1051 mb high centered near 45N26W. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build into the western Atlantic behind the front through early Thu and maintain the fresh to strong N to NE winds, before gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh Thu night through Fri. The front will move SE and reach from 28N55W to near Puerto Rico on Thu, and from 23N55W to the northern Leeward Islands on Fri. Winds will slowly subside Fri night and Sat as high pressure weakens, with seas subsiding modestly. $$ ERA