000 AXNT20 KNHC 122212 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system is forecast to develop near 25N42W in the central subtropical Atlantic along a stationary front late tonight. The low is expected to deepen while drifting generally northwestward through Thursday. Near-gale to gale N to NE winds will develop just northwest and north of the low from 25N-29N between 40W-47W on Wed and Thu before diminishing Thu night. Seas under the strongest winds are anticipated to peak near 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NE swell caused by an extremely long fetch of fresh to strong NE winds are causing combined seas of 12-15 ft over the central Atlantic from 21N-30N between 36W-58W. A 1430 UTC altimeter overpass observed 12 ft seas or more along a line from 21N53W to 19N50W. The area of 12 ft or more seas will gradually shift southwestward toward Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and N Leeward Islands through Wed night, before subsiding below 12 ft on Thu. This very large NE swell will also be directly impacting the Mona and Anegada Passages. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near 10N14W then runs southwestward to near 07N17W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N17W 05N43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-06N between 08W-23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends across the SE United States. South of the ridge, moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 5-8 ft exist across the central and E Gulf including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail for the W Gulf. Scattered showers are present over the W Gulf from 23N-28N. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build across the eastern United States, increasing areal coverage of fresh to strong winds over much of the Gulf by Thursday. A large area of near gale-force winds will develop over the north-central and E basin Thu through Fri night. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Gulf the end of the week, and track NE across southern Florida Sat night. This will further tigthen pressure gradient, with gale-force winds possible over the SE Gulf Fri. A cold front will move into the western Gulf this weekend, with strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas west of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front reaches southwestward from central Cuba across the Cayman Islands to just east of the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough runs northwestward from NE Honduras across the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 15N-21N west of 81W, including coastal Nicaragua, Honduras and NE Yucatan. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds are occurring over most of the Caribbean including the Windward, Mona, and Anegada Passages. Seas are 8-11 ft over the central and SW Caribbean, 6-9 ft over the NW Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the E Caribbean. Seas in NE swell are 6-8 ft over the Windward and Mona Passages and 7-9 ft over the Anegada Passage. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night. Seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. A stationary front extends from Cuba to Nicaragua, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the north of the front. These winds will continue through Wed morning when the front will lift northward towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually decrease the end of the week into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Gale Warning and significant north swell. A stationary front stretches southwestward from just west of Bermuda across 31N69W across the central Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dominate up to 60 NM northwest, and 180 NM southeast of this feature. Winds poleward of the front are NE fresh to strong, while those equatorward are gentle. Seas are 7-9 ft in the are of the strongest winds. A stationary front reaches southwestward from 31N25W to east of the N Leeward Islands near 18N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 180 NM northwest, and 60 NM southeast of this boundary. To the south, a pre-frontal surface trough extends from 20N49W to 15N50W scattered moderate convection occurring from 15N-20N between 43W-50W. An extensive area of fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds are observed poleward of the front with only gentle winds equatorward. In addition to the large area of 12 ft or greater seas, 8 ft seas extend from 17N-31N east of 68W. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front extending from 31N69W to Cuba is forecast to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida this evening. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida through Wed, with these winds spreading northward through Thu night. Gale force winds are possible east of Florida later this week. An area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force winds are possible east of the low. $$ Landsea