919 AXNT20 KNHC 121757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system is forecast to develop in the central subtropical Atlantic along a stationary front near 25N42W late tonight. Afterward, it is expected to deepen while drifting generally northwestward through Thursday. Near-gale to gale northerly winds will develop just northwest and north of the low from 26N to 29N between 39W and 42W on Wednesday morning, then shift westward through Thursday morning. Seas under the strongest winds are anticipated to peak from 16 to 19 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large northerly swell are coupling with wind waves created by fresh to strong NE winds to create seas of 12 to 15 ft at the central Atlantic from 22N to 29N between 35W and 58W. This area will gradually shift southwestward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night, before subsiding below 12 ft on Thursday. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then runs southwestward to near 07N16W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N16W across 04N40W to 04N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N between the Liberia coast and 16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is seen near the east coast of Mexico from Veracruz northward to near Galveston, Texas. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near this feature at the west- central Gulf. A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist across the central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail over the southeastern Gulf today. Strong high pressure will build across the eastern United States, increasing areal coverage of fresh to strong winds over much of the Gulf by Thursday. A large area of near gale-force winds will develop over the north-central and northeastern Gulf Thu through Fri night. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Gulf toward the end of the week, and track northeastward across southern Florida Sat night. The pressure gradient will further tigthen with gale-force winds possible over the southeastern Gulf Fri. A cold front will move into the western Gulf this weekend, with strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas west of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front reaches southwestward from central Cuba across the Cayman Islands to just east of the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough runs northwestward from northeastern Honduras across the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and northwest of these features over the northwestern basin. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Nicaragua coast and nearby waters. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found at the central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist at the eastern and southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present over the northwestern basin, behind the stationary front. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night. Rough seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. ENE winds behind the front will become fresh to strong by later this afternoon and then persist through Wed morning in which the front will lift northward towards the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Gale Warning and significant north swell. A stationary front stretches southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N68W across the central Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dominate up to 60 nm northwest, and 180 nm southeast of this feature. A cold front reaches southwestward from west of Madeira to near 31N25W, then continues as a stationary front to east of the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 170 nm northwest, and 100 nm southeast of this boundary. To the south, a few surface troughs are triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 10N to 18N between 43W and 60W. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident behind the first stationary front, including the northwest Bahamas and near the Florida east coast. Behind the second stationary front but outside the significant swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are present up to 500 nm northwest of the second stationary front. For the eastern Atlantic, gentle with locally moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft in moderate NW swell are seen north of 14N between the Africa coast and 40W/second stationary front, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in large northerly swell are noted from 06N to 20N/second stationary front between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and light to gentle monsoonal winds with seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the second stationary front is forecast to lift northward towards the northwest Bahamas and the Straits of Florida this evening. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near- gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida through Wed, with these winds spreading northward through Thu night. Gale force winds are possible east of Florida later this week. $$ Chan