000
AXNT20 KNHC 120553
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event...

Strong NE winds, and sea heights of 12 feet or higher,
are in the area that is bounded by the points 31N48W 
26N55W 20N53W 25N37W 31N20W. The sea heights will build
to 15 feet later tonight and into early Tuesday. The
area of sea heights of 12 feet is expected to expand
as far to the west as the regional waters of Puerto Rico
by Wednesday, and as far to the east as 35W. The rough
seas will continue to affect this region through
Thursday night, before subsiding to the range of 8 feet
to 10 feet by Friday.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the
central Atlantic Ocean, at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect gale-force E winds, and sea
heights that will range from 12 feet to 16 feet,
from 26N to 31N between 35W and 43W. 

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues froom 05N23W, to
03N35W 03N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 07N southward from 50W eastward, and from
12N southward between 50W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through SE Louisiana, to inland
Mexico near 22N103W. the Florida Panhandle,
to SE Louisiana, to south central Texas.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 16N85W at
the coast of Honduras, through Belize, to the northern
part of the Isthmus of Tenhuantepec of southern Mexico.

An upper level trough is inland in Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong, cover the Gulf of
Mexico.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas, are in
the SE Gulf, and into the Yucatan Channel, in the wake of 
the most recent cold front. Moderate seas are from the
SW corner of the Gulf, toward the south central Gulf,
toward the coastal waters of west central Florida. Gentle
to moderate winds, and slight seas are in the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will 
prevail over the SE Gulf tonight behind a cold front
currently in the NW Caribbean. However, strong high
pressure building in the wake of the front will lead
to the redevelopment of fresh to strong NE to E winds
basin-wide Tue morning into early in the weekend as the
front retreats back towards the Gulf again. Near 
gale-force to gale-force winds are likely to develop
over the north-central and NE basin Fri and Fri night.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the western Atlantic Ocean
near 31N71W, to Cuba near 22N78W, to eastern Honduras.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from the cold front
northward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that
runs from NE Nicaragua beyond the Windward Channel.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere
from Jamaica westward. 

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are
elsewhere from Jamaica eastward. Rough seas are from
17N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are
elsewhere from 80W eastward. Moderate to rough seas
are from 17N80W northwestward into the Yucatan Channel.
Slight seas are in the coastal waters of Central America,
and from Jamaica northward between the Windward Passage
and NW Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W beyond western Panama.
Broad cyclonic wind flow from 250 mb to 700 mb is in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 210 nm of
the coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 15N. Shallow patches
of moisture are supporting isolated showers throughout
the rest of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 12/0000 UTC, are: 0.43 in
Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh
to strong trade winds across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near
gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas
in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range,
highestover Colombia adjacent waters. A cold front over
the NW Caribbean extending from E Cuba to E Honduras is
followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas.
These winds will continue through Wed morning as the
front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh
to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening
through early Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event,
and for the Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning.

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N71W,
to Cuba near 22N78W, to eastern Honduras. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
is within 330 nm to the east of the cold front from 24N
northward; and within 180 nm to the east of the cold front
from 20N to 24N. Isolated moderate is from 25N northward
between 60W and 64W. Fresh SE winds are within 200 nm to
the north of Hispaniola. Moderate and fresh winds are
elsewhere from 65W westward. Strong NE winds are from
19N to 27N between 55W and 62W. Fresh anticyclonic winds
are elsewhere from 24N northward between 55W and 65W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. 

A stationary front passes through 31N25W 26N36W 21N48W.
One surface trough is along 37W/39W from 13N to 25N.
A second surface trough is along 49W/51W from 12N to 22N.
Moderate to rough seas are within 640 nm to the south and
southeast of the stationary front between 20W and 30W;
within 1100 nm to the south of the front between 30W and
40W; and from the stationary front to the ITCZ between
40W and 55W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 210 nm on either side of 
20N53W 24N43W beyond 31N33W.
 
A cold front extending from 31N71W to E Cuba is forecast
to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before
retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of 
Florida on Wed. Strong high pressure building north of the
area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale
force NE to E winds and building seas over the central
and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and
over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. 

$$
mt