000 AXNT20 KNHC 112322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough of low pressure between 45W and 50W will support strong NE winds just N of the trough. Twelve ft seas are seen north of 23N between 25W and 54W. Seas will build to near 15 ft late tonight and into early Tue. The area of 12 ft seas are expected to expand as far west as the regional waters of Puerto Rico by Wed and as far east as 35W. These rough seas will continue to affect this region through Thu night before subsiding to 8-10 ft by Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 03N43W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the southeast Gulf in the wake of a cold front in the Caribbean Sea. Seas range 8 to 9 ft in this area in addition to the southern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the northern and western Gulf. Seas range 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail over the SE Gulf tonight. High pressure building north of the area will lead to fresh to near gale force winds across the E and NW gulf Tue evening through Thu with potential gale force winds developing over the north- central and NE basin Fri and Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front stretches across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to northeast Honduras. Showers and thunderstorms are found along and 75 nm ahead of the front. Behind the front, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail with seas 6 to 9 ft. The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure off the coast of Colombia is leading to fresh to strong winds in the central basin. Seas range 8 to 10 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail in the eastern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. A cold front over the NW Caribbean is followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the central Atlantic. A strong cold front extending from 31N73W to western Cuba. Strong winds continue ahead of the cold front N of 29N with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas range 8 to 10 ft across this area. Additionally, a line of numerous moderate to strong convection is depicted ahead of the cold front north of the southern Bahamas. In the central and eastern Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N27W to 24N42W. Surface ridging covers the subtropical waters between the fronts, which is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds north of the stationary front boundaries. Seas are already 8 to 12 ft in this area, N of 15N between 19W and 69W. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical Atlantic waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate NE wind over that region where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N73W to central Cuba. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near- gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. $$ AReinhart