000 AXNT20 KNHC 030457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1014 mb low pressure system located near 29N40W and a strong high pressure system well east of Bermuda result in near gale to gale-force winds mainly north of 29N and between 39W and 44W. Seas are peaking near 18 ft to the northwest of the low. Seas greater than 12 ft dominate the waters N of 27N and between 37W and 47W. The low pressure will drift SE on Sun while gradually weakening. As a result, winds and seas will begin to diminish on Sun. Winds will decrease below strong-force and seas subside below 12 ft on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 06N33W. A surface trough is analyzed south of 13N, along 37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 13N and between 25W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from southern Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Divergence aloft sustain a few showers near the frontal boundary with a large area of multilayer clouds dominating the Gulf waters well ahead of the front. Tranquil weather conditions are seen in the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted behind the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present ahead of the front. For the forecast, the above-mentioned front will move slowly SE tonight, then reach from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche Sun evening, from South Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from west-central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf Tue evening, before moving SE of the basin early Wed. Dense marine fog is possible tonight through Sun morning near portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected Tue and Tue night S of 25N becoming fresh to strong N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean Sea remains under the dominion of a subtropical ridge centered well east of Bermuda that extends southwestward into the region. The tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and seas of 6-9 ft are found in the north-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave heights of 4-7 ft are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure located E of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through early Sun. The high will shift SE and weaken through Tue, leading to a gradual diminishing trend in winds and seas across the basin Sun afternoon through Tue. Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, Sun through Wed. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect near 29N40W. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A cold front extends from the gale center located near 29N40W to 21N45W to 19N57W. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary. Farther west, a surface trough is analyzed along 63W, from 29N to 20N. Latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE-E winds north of the front and east of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned well east of Bermuda. This 1029 mb high pressure supports mainly moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken and dissipate as it sinks slowly southward through Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in N swell prevail north of the front and will gradually subside through late Sun. Strong high pressure centered NE of Bermuda will shift SE and weaken into early next week, ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N75W to the northwest Bahamas and Upper Florida Keys Mon evening, and weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N57W to the central Bahamas Tue evening. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW waters area Wed and Wed night, followed by strong NW to N winds and quickly building seas. $$ Delgado