000 AXNT20 KNHC 020953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure along a slow-moving cold front will move to near 30N38W by this afternoon. Near-gale to localized gale force N to NE winds are expected in the NW semicircle of the low from late this morning through Sun morning from 29N to 31N between 37W and 40W. Seas in this area will build up to 17 ft by tonight. Winds and seas will begin diminishing Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 03N30W and to 02N39W. The ITCZ extends from 02N39W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 14W and 18W, and from 00N to 08N between 30W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is slowly progressing eastward across the NW Gulf of Mexico, and extends from Lake Charles, LA to NE Mexico near 23.5N98W. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture result in scattered thunderstorms north of 29N near the coast between Apalachicola, FL and south-central Louisiana. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the NE and west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Mexico to the east of the front, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. West of the front, moderate northerly winds and 3-4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico this evening, from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sun evening, from South Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and extend from central Cuba to near the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf on Tue before becoming stationary and dissipating by late Tue night. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected Tue and Tue night from 22N to 26N west of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong high pressure system north of the Caribbean Sea supports strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere in the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail. Fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are over the eastern Caribbean, with similar conditions in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the gradient resulting from strong high pressure north of the area combining with relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. As the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will diminish some Mon into Tue. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed and Wed night, followed by fresh northeast winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 32N37W to 22N50W and to 20.5N61W. A shear line then stretches from 20.5N61W to 24N74W. Isolated showers are seen on satellite imagery near the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring north of the cold front, while fresh E winds are north of the shear line. However, moderate or weaker winds are evident under the ridge, north of 28N and between 60W and 71W. Seas are 8-11 ft north of the cold front, except for 11-13 ft north of 29N and east of 44W. In the remainder of the area north of the cold front and shear line, moderate seas prevail. Fresh easterly trades are observed south of the boundaries, and between 60W and 75W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. The exception is locally strong winds at the entrance of the Windward Passage. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad subtropical ridging. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are affecting the waters north of 27N and east of 20W, between Morocco and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west to 55W, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it moves southeastward through early this afternoon. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas due to a northwest swell in the wake of the front will gradually subside through Sun. Strong high pressure centered well north of the region will shift eastward and weaken into early next week in response to a cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the northwest Bahamas and to near the Florida Keys Mon night, and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by Tue night. Another cold front is expected to move across the area Wed and Wed night, followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas. $$ Hagen