000 AXNT20 KNHC 300532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ continues from 04N28W to 01N47.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 10N between 18W and 26.5W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 03N between 38.5W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1026 mb high over southwestern Georgia. Fresh E to SE winds are noted across western Gulf, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere in the central and eastern Gulf. A surface trough continues across the western Gulf from offshore of Tampico along 97W to the central Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is depicted with this trough. For the forecast, a surface trough prevails across the Bay of Campeche. Rough seas will continue in the vicinity of the trough tonight. Strong SE return flow will set up across the northwest Gulf starting early Thu ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean to the north of the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection is depicted in association with the front except for small clusters of thunderstorms along the front W of 84W. A weak surface trough extends from south of Jamaica to eastern Cuba and along 77W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted along the coast of western Jamaica in association with this trough. Another area of similar convection is depicted in the southwestern Caribbean in association with the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The pressure difference over the central Caribbean is producing fresh to locally strong winds between 71W and 77W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. East of 71W, moderate winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through early Thu. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of fronts are over the western Atlantic, extending from a large and developing hurricane-force low-pressure system across the NW Atlantic. The leading cold front extends from 28N55W to 23N70W, then becomes stationary to central Cuba. Light showers along with lower ceilings are noted within 90 nm on either side of the front, north of 27N. The second cold front extends from 31N58W to 28N65W then is stationary to 27N74W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north of 29N. Moderate or less N to NE winds are behind the boundaries. Seas are 5 to 7 ft behind the front W of 48W and 7 to 10 ft in building NW swell E of 70W. High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 29N45W. Light to gentle winds with seas 4 to 5 ft are noted under the influence of the high. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N20W to 25N26W then it is stationary while dissipating. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the front, north of 26.5N. A pre-frontal trough is producing light showers and lower ceilings along 17W north of 21N. Fresh to strong NW winds are north of 25.5N between 23W and 36W with seas 6 to 11 ft. West of the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh SW winds with seas to 8 ft are noted. Light to gentle trade winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned fronts will merge by early Thu, and the combined front will continue to move southeast, then stall along 21W north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, rough seas and NE swell will follow the front into Sat. Looking ahead, another front will move off the NE coast of Florida Sun night, and reach from just west of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Mon. $$ KRV