000 AXNT20 KNHC 281756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front stretches westward from western Cuba, passing just north of the Yucatan Peninsula to the southwestern Gulf near 21N95W, then curves southward to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm along either side of the front west of 90W. East of 90W, widely scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the front. Enhanced by a 1026 mb high near Tampico Mexico, tight gradient is supporting near- gale to gale NW winds and 12 to 14 ft seas offshore of Veracruz. As another 1030 mb high currently over eastern Texas moves east- southeastward later afternoon and evening, it should cause the front to sink southward as a cold front. In response, winds and seas across the southwestern Gulf should gradually subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border, then extends southwestward to 04N25W. An ITCZ continues from 04N25W to 04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 02N to 08N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast and 17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 90 nm north, and 240 nm south of the rest of the trough and ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters just offshore from the Costa Rica-Panama border. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features section, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Fresh to strong N to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, most the front is going to exit the basin later this afternoon, while the western portion across the southern Bay of Campeche will dissipate tonight into Wed morning. Conditions across the Gulf will improve on Wed. Strong southerly flow will set up across the northern Gulf by Wed night ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1019 mb high near 34N48W to the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Convergent trades are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from near the Honduras-Nicaragua border to near Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the Mid-Atlantic ridge will shift eastward as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. A stationary front currently over western Cuba will sink into the NW Caribbean as a cold front later this afternoon, bringing brief fresh to strong NE winds behind it across the Yucatan Channel this evening. The front will gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by tonight before dissipating later in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to the central Bahamas, then continues as a stationary front to western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm southeast of this boundary. Another cold front curves southwestward from the Azores across 31N34W to 22N48W. Widely scattered showers are seen near this feature. Farther east, a surface trough runs northward from 24N37W across a 1014 mb low near 26N34W to 30N33W. Interacting with a pronounced Mid-Latitude trough near 27N36W, scattered moderate convection is flaring up north of 21N between 26W and 38W. A surface trough is producing scattered showers west of the Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 17N between 28W and 37W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate northwest of the first cold front, including the northwest Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between the Africa coast and 58W/first cold front. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 33W. To the west, light to gentle with locally moderate NNE to ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from the Equator to 20N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, winds ahead of the first front with moderate seas will diminish today. The front will stretch from near 31N56W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and reach from 31N51W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist behind the front through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves east of Bermuda. $$ Chan