000 AXNT20 KNHC 251034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large and long-period swell continues in association with 1006 mb low pressure (AL90) centered near 28N37W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are north of 25N and between 32W-37W, with peak seas to 13 ft. The primary swell is from the north with a period of 10-12 seconds. The low will move to north of 31N in a few hours as it continues north- northeastward. These seas along with fresh to strong south to southwest winds over this area are forecast to lift north of 31N late this afternoon, or early this evening allowing for marine conditions to improve. This system is forecast to continue to quickly track north-northeastward toward much colder waters and develop more pronounced frontal features during the next day or so. Its chances of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics appear to be decreasing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 04N25W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N35W and to 03N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm south of the trough between 16W-21W, and from 03N to 07N between 08W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 41W-47W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed from extreme southern Florida to 23N86W and to a 1013 mb low near 22N93W. A trough extends northwestward from the low to coast of northeast Mexico. High pressure ridging is over the northern part of the basin. Isolated showers are over the eastern Gulf north of the stationary front. An overnight ASCAT data pass depicted strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds within 90 nm north of the stationary front between 83W-85W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of the frontal boundary to 27N and between 88W-95W. Seas are 4-6 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft near 26N90W. Moderate or weaker winds are over the remainder of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the basin, except for lower seas of 3-4 ft south of 22N and west of 87W. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front and low will lift northward toward the northern Gulf through Sun. A cold front will move across the basin Sun morning, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are expected. The front will move southeast and south of the basin Tue night as high pressure shifts eastward along 30N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overnight ASCAT data passes noted fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds over the south-central section of the sea to along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds are roughly south of 13N and between 70W-76W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Mostly fresh trade winds are over the remainder area of the sea east of about 80W. Moderate or weaker trade winds are west of 80W. Moderate seas are over most of the eastern part of the sea, while slight seas are over the remainder of the basin. Seas are currently peaking to 7 ft near the coast of northwest Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the far southwest part of the sea and just south of Jamaica. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next few days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an ongoing Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from near 31N50W to 27N62W, then transitions to a stationary front to the NW Bahamas and southwestward from there to South Florida. Moderate southwest to west winds are along the front. Moderate seas are north of 29N west of the front to 57W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the frontal boundary, except for the moderate to fresh west-northwest winds that are north of 29N between 75W-79W due to low pressure of 1014 mb that is just north of the area near 32N74W. Seas with these winds are of the slight range. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 25N and between 65W-75W. Moderate seas are south of the frontal boundary between the Bahamas and 60W. Areas of rain, with embedded scattered showers are over the northwest part of the area north of the NW Bahamas. Weak high centers of 1018 mb are analyzed on either side of the frontal boundary, one being near 25N57W, and the other one near 30N70W. Low pressure (AL90) is analyzed near 31N35W with a pressure of 1005 mb. A trough extends from the low south-southwestward to 21N37W and to near 12N52W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms shifting east- northeastward are north of 27N and east of the trough to near 30W. Slight seas are present north of 23N and east of 20W, while moderate seas are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move southeastward through Mon while dissipating. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate through Mon. A new cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeastern Florida on Mon, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning, then from near 31N56W to 25N70W, and as a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to northern Cuba by early Wed. The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the front. $$ Aguirre