000 AXNT20 KNHC 250603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...INVEST-AL90 and a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic Ocean... A 1006 mb low pressure center, INVEST-AL90, is near 29N37W. A surface trough curves along 30N34W 23N35W 19N40W 12N51W. scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 27N northward between 30W and 35W. Broken to overcast multi- layered clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere from 10N northward between 20W and 60W. The primary swell has been from the north with a period of 10 seconds to 12 seconds. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are from 25N northward between 32W and 35W. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 23N northward between 30W and 40W. Rough seas, in general, are from 15N northward between 40W and 60W; and from 18N northward between 30W and 40W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation is broad and elongated. This system is forecast to move north-northeastward 20 mph to 25 mph, into areas of much colder waters. Expect more pronounced frontal features to develop during the next day or so. The chances of this weather feature acquiring subtropical characteristics or tropical characteristics appear to be decreasing. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at the website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W and 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W, to 03N40W and 03N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 55W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the coast of Florida near 27N, just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, to the south central Gulf near 24N90W, to a 21N93W 1012 mb low pressure center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 87W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas cover the areas that are from the coastal waters of Louisiana to the coastal waters of NE Mexico, and to the north of the Yucatan Channel. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 23N to 24N between 84W and 87W. Fresh NE winds are from 22N to 28N between 82W and 90W. Fresh NE winds are from 24N northward from 90W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from Southwest Florida to 24N87W and to a 1014 mb low near 21N93W. The low and the front will lift northward toward the northern Gulf through Sun. A new cold front will move across the basin Sun morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and reach from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 14N southward between 69W and 73W, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mostly fresh, and some moderate, easterly winds cover the rest of the area that is from 80W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the eastern two-thirds of the area. The comparatively highest sea heights, that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are within 240 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next few days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Significant Swell Event, that is associated with the INVEST-AL90 low pressure center. A cold front passes through 31N51W, to 28N60W, to 27N68W. The front is stationary from 27N68W, beyond the coast of Florida near 27N. Moderate to rough seas are from the frontal boundary northward from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are from the frontal boundary northward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 25N southward between 65W and 75W. Moderate seas are from the frontal boundary southward between 60W and the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are from 25N northward between 50W and 70W, and from 70W westward. A first 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N57W. A second 1018 mb high pressure center is just to the north of the frontal boundary near 31N70W. Slight seas are from 23N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from near 31N51W to 27N68W, where it transitions to a stationary front to Palm Beach, Florida. The cold front will move southeastward through Mon while dissipating. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate through Mon. A new cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeastern Florida on Mon, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning, then from near 31N56W to 25N70W, and as a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to northern Cuba by early Wed. The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the front. $$ MT/JA