000 AXNT20 KNHC 231725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N38W to 1006 mb low pressure near 26.8N42.5W. A stationary front continues from the low pressure to 17N50W to the northern Leeward Islands. Ahead of the low and fronts, a trough extends from 26N40W to 18N43W. Northerly gale force winds are north of 27N between 42W and 45W, with peak seas to 19 ft. Elsewhere north of 23N between 35W and 50W cyclonic winds around the low pressure are strong to near-gale force. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N38W to 22N44W to 31N53W with peak seas to 19 ft. Elsewhere, seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N34W to 20N41W to 18N65W to 31N58W, including Atlantic Exposures of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Primary swell direction is N with a period of 10-12 seconds. The low pressure is forecast to move east today and tomorrow, then turn to the north and move out of the area on Saturday. Gales are expected to end Friday afternoon, but winds will remain at near- gale force speeds through Saturday. This system could become a subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the weekend while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical development should end by early next week when the system moves over cooler waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N33W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 31W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... The frontal boundary extending from Everglades National Park across the southern Gulf parallel to the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has stalled this morning. Moderate NE winds continue within 90 nm north of the stalled front. In the western Bay of Campeche, N to NW winds are fresh within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft south of 23N. Elsewhere, high pressure over NE Mexico and the SE United States continues to build, providing for light to gentle NE winds and 2-5 ft seas north of 23N. For the forecast, rough seas associated with the stalled front in the Bay of Campeche will subside by this evening. The front will lift north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push across the basin late in the weekend into early next week, potentially bringing fresh to strong winds across the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 1010 mb low pressure is along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the low pressure to the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N west of 82W. A surface trough is south of Hispaniola along 70W, accompanied by scattered showers. Trades are mainly gentle across the basin, except for moderate speeds detected by satellite scatterometer in the central Caribbean this morning. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the northern Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds in the south- central Caribbean are forecast to reach strong speeds Sat night into Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean the entire forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on an ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. A cold front extends from 31N69W to the Northern Bahamas, where a stationary front continues to Hollywood, FL (much to the disappointment of this forecaster, just north of Miami, FL). Ahead of the front north of 28N between 63W and 70W, SW winds are fresh to strong and seas are 8-9 ft. A weakening frontal boundary along the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is producing scattered showers and supporting moderate trades. In remaining waters across the Atlantic, prevailing trade winds are light to gentle with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, as the W Atlantic cold front slides eastward, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to impact the northern offshore waters N of 28N through tonight. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida on Mon. $$ Mahoney