000 AXNT20 KNHC 212320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure near 31N53W has a cold front extending SW of the low to the Anegada Passage. Gale force winds are ongoing west of the front to 67W and N of 23.5N. Seas in these waters are 10-18 ft. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are also noted ahead of the front to 48W, N of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the cold front north of 23N between 51W and 55W. As the low tracks SE through Wed night, gale force winds will continue in the forecast waters through Wed morning along with a broad area of strong winds on both sides of the low and front N of 23N and E of 65W. High seas over 20 ft will accompany the strong to gale- force winds. As this low moves over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. Regardless of development, northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or greater N of 20N and E of 65W into late week with swell also impacting the Atlantic Passages. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a cold front stretches from Alabama to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the front, especially north of 26N. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are found behind the cold front, with the strongest winds occurring off Veracruz. Seas are 7-11 ft behind the front. The front will extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and from the Florida Keys to the northern Yucatan by Thu morning. Gale force winds will continue through Wed afternoon off the Veracruz coast with rough to very rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will follow the front across most of the Gulf through Wed night. Winds and seas will subside on Thu as the front stalls across the SE Gulf and high pressure settles in. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is draped across central Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 10N60W. A few showers are seen near the boundary. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in southwestern Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong ridge over New England. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are evident in the eastern Gulf, especially east of a line from Pinar del Rio, Cuba, to the Florida Panhandle. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. Slight to gentle southerly winds and 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front stretches from Alabama to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are ongoing off the coast of Veracruz. The front will extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed morning, and from the Florida Keys to the northern Yucatan by Thu morning. Gale force winds will continue through Wed afternoon off the Veracruz coast with rough to very rough seas. Meanwhile, strong winds will follow the front across most of the Gulf through Wed night. Winds and seas will subside on Thu as the front stalls across the SE Gulf and high pressure settles in. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak low pressure (Invest 99L) is located in the south-central Caribbean Sea, off the Guajira peninsula of Colombia. A surface trough extends to the northeast toward the US Virgin Islands, while the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches the low pressure from the coast of Costa Rica. Invest 99L has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours. For more details, please visit hurricanes.gov In the north-central Caribbean NE winds are fresh to strong, with seas 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 4-5 ft are present in the Windward Passage and the Lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure over the central Caribbean have not become any better organized today. Nearby dry air is forecast to prevent additional significant development of the system as it moves slowly westward during the next few days. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Meanwhile, high pressure N of the Greater Antilles will cause fresh to strong NE winds to continue in the Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola through Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section details on a Gale Warning. A 1036 mb high pressure system over New England extends southward into the SW North Atlantic. A dry airmass dominates the region, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section sustain fresh to locally strong E-SE winds, especially west of 73W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N23.5W to 22N44W. Moderate to strong convection is noted north of 28.5N between 22W and 26W. Southeast of the front, a 1019 high pressure in centered near 24N18.5W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are evident north of 23N between 16.5W and 22W. East of the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong northerly, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure near 31N53W has a cold front extending SW of the low to the Anegada Passage. Gale force winds are ongoing west of the low and front. As the low tracks SE through Wed night, gale force winds will continue in the forecast waters through Wed morning along with a broad area of strong winds on both sides of the low and front N of 23N and E of 65W. High seas over 20 ft will accompany the strong to gale- force winds. As this low moves over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. Regardless of development, northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or greater N of 20N and E of 65W into late week with swell also impacting the Atlantic Passages. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern Florida tonight in advance of the next cold front that will push off the Florida coast by Wed. $$ KRV