000 AXNT20 KNHC 210606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A trough of low pressure is developing along a cold front southeast of Bermuda near 30N59W. It is forecast to move southeastward over the warmer water of the central subtropical Atlantic, which could allow this system to gradually deepen over the next few days. As a result, NW to N winds near this low are going to reach near-gale to gale force, north of 30N between 57W and 61W later tonight. Seas in this area will also build to between 13 and 16 ft. These conditions will shift southeastward along with the low over the next few days. Since environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual tropical development, this system could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the latter part of this week. There is a medium chance of formation for this system for the next 7 days. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front curves southwestward from a 1006 mb low over the Texas-Louisiana border across Galveston, TX and the northwestern Gulf to near Brownsville, TX. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightnings and gusty winds are occurring near and up to 120 nm east of this boundary. It will gradually move southeastward over the next few days, reaching from near New Orleans, LO to near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon. Northerly winds behind this front will reach near- gale force across the northwestern and west- central Gulf, and gale force at the western Bay of Campeche near Veracruz by noon Tue. Seas will peak from 8 to 12 ft across the northwestern and west- central Gulf, and 11 to 14 ft at the western Bay of Campeche. Once the front has pushed farther east from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Wed, both winds and seas should gradually subside across the western Gulf. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from west of Guinea at 08N16W across 05N30W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 150 nm north of this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in southwestern Gulf. Besides the cold front and its related weather mentioned in the Special Features section, a broad surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong winds are from the NW at the northwestern edge of the Gulf, and from the SE near the Florida Panhandle. Seas at both areas are from 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to SW winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms, with locally high winds and seas, will be along and just ahead of the cold front through Tue for areas north of 28N. Read the Special Features section for developing gales and building seas behind this front. Winds and seas will subside late Wed into Thu as high pressure settles in. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The dissipating portion of a cold front reaches westward from Hispaniola to west of Jamaica. Widely scattered showers are seen near this boundary. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches eastward from near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border to a 1008 mb low north of Colombia-Venezuela border. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near the monsoon trough, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and east of the low. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the northwestern and north- central basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, nearby dry air is forecast to prevent additional development for the 1008 mb low north of Colombia as it drifts slowly westward over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, high pressure building toward the Greater Antilles is leading to moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola. These winds will increase further to locally strong Tue into Wed. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for detail on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from a 1005 mb low east of Bermuda across 31N58W to near Hispaniola. Convergent southerly winds east of the front are triggering scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 52W and 58W. At the central and eastern Atlantic, a stationary front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N25W to 21N36W, then continues westward to 22N43W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 80 nm southeast and south of this feature. Convergent trade winds are causing widely scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N between 34W to 48W. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft and abundant moisture, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 08N to 20N between 19W and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found near the cold front from 25N to 30N between 52W and 68W. To the west, moderate to fresh NE to to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large NE swell are evident north of 20N between 68W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between the Africa coast and 52W, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle with locally moderate easterly winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen from 07N to 20N between 20W and 35W. Further west, gentle with locally moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate from the Equator to 20N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned developing low southeast of Bermuda in the Special Features section will cause a broad area of strong winds on both sides of the front north of 23N and east of 65W. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft will accompany this area of strong to gale-force winds. Regardless of developments, northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or greater east of 65W and north of 20N by mid through late week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern Florida by Wednesday in advance of the next cold front. $$ Chan