000 AXNT20 KNHC 202355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends from a 1006 mb low pressure near 31N62W to just to the north of the Dominican Republic, and curving into eastern Cuba. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. Regardless of whether this is tropical or not, the low will support winds to gale force and very rough seas north of 27N between 50W and 55W through late Wed. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will cover the area north of 25N between 45W and 60W through mid week. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from near Mobile Bay to just S of Veracruz, in Mexico, on Tuesday. NW to N winds will increase rapidly behind the cold front. Gale-force winds will develop by Tue afternoon offshore Tampico in Mexico. These gale- force winds will spread southward, and they will impact the waters that are offshore Veracruz in Mexico, from Tue evening through at least midday on Wed. The sea heights in the west central Gulf, and in the SW Gulf will range from 12 feet to 16 feet. The front will be well to the east of the area by Wednesday night, and the wind speeds and the sea heights will decrease. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 05N25W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 20W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the developing gale warning in the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front extends along the north-central Gulf coast from the western Florida Panhandle to across southern Louisiana. Farther west, and cold front is approaching the Texas coastal plains. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the western Gulf, and light to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, bringing strong N winds behind it. Gale force winds will develop off Veracruz by Tue afternoon with rough to very rough seas. The front will reach from the central Gulf Coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue afternoon, and from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Strong thunderstorms are possible along the front in the north-central and northeast Gulf tonight into Tue. Winds will drop below gale force by Wed afternoon with strong winds continuing across the SW Gulf through Wed night. Winds will become light to gentle by Thu with seas subsiding below 8 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from the Mona Passage to 1008 mb low pressure off Colombia near 14N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident within 60 nm in the southeast quadrant of the low pressure. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated only a small area of fresh winds within 30 nm of the center in the southeast quadrant. An earlier ship observation indicated fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, but mostly gentle to moderate winds are evident elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the shower and thunderstorm activity near the low pressure remains disorganized, and nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Meanwhile, high pressure building toward the Greater Antilles Tue into Wed will lead to fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Atlantic gale warning. In addition to the aforementioned winds and seas near the frontal boundary and low pressure system, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted west of 40W. Farther east, a stationary front reaches from 31N23W to 22N40W to 29N46W. Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is propagating across the waters north of 23N between 20W and 40W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving E through Wednesday then exit the region to the east of 55W. Northerly winds will reach gale force tonight N of 29N between 55W and 60W, then track eastward through Tue night before moving east of 55W by Wed morning. Very rough to high seas will accompany these gales, with northerly swell leading to seas of over 12 ft for areas N of 20N and E of 65W by Wed. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern Florida by Wednesday in advance of the next cold front. $$ Christensen