000 AXNT20 KNHC 192144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Low pressure of 1005 mb is located near 30.5N69W with a cold front extending to the central Bahamas. A surface trough is ahead of the front and runs from 28N65W to 20N70W. A tight presure gradient between this system and a 1033 mb North Atlantic High is producing near-gale to gale-force southerly winds E of the front north of 26N between 60W and 65W. Seas in this area range from 10 to 15 ft. Fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere within 180 nm E of the front, with seas of 7-10 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force E of the front tonight. Winds will increase to gale force west of the front late Mon night. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon night. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds will develop over the west-central and SW Gulf W of the front Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N13W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N E of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on an upcoming gale warning in the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow is expected over the western Gulf tonight and Mon, ahead of the next cold forecast to enter the NW Gulf Mon night. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds will develop over the west-central and SW Gulf Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A small area of low pressure located just offshore of the northern coast of South America is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Proximity of nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant development of this system as it begins to drift slowly westward over the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail over the western semicircle of the low. Elsewhere, low pressure and surface troughing prevail over the western Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted off Nicaragua and Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds previl E of 70W, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough will persist over the central Caribbean trough mid-week. Under this weather pattern, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are expected over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail over the western Caribbean tonight and Mon. High pressure will build across the Greater Antilles on Tue bringing increasing winds across the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on an ongoing gale warning in the SW N Atlantic waters. Aside from the low and associated gales, high pressure prevails over the discussion waters east of 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N23W to 25N36W to 28N46W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-11 ft are N of the front. Gentle to moderae winds, and seas of 6-9 ft are elsewhere E of 60W. Over the waters W of 60W W of the cold front mentioned in the special features section above, moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the front and the trough will merge tonight or Mon, and a cold front will continue to move SE across the forecast waters. Strong to gale force southerly winds are occurring N of 26N between 60W and 65W. As the low moves N of the area tonight, the southerly winds ahead of the front will gradually diminish, but fresh to strong NW to N winds will develop NW of the cold front. On Tue, a low is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary. This system, combined with strong high pressure in the wake of the front, is forecast to bring strong to gale force winds over the NE waters. $$ AL