000 AXNT20 KNHC 190614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure system is located north of the central Bahamas near 28N74W. Tight gradient between this system and a large 1034 mb North Atlantic High is producing near-gale to gale-force southerly winds north of 27N between 60W and 65W. Seas in this area range from 12 to 15 ft. These conditions are expected to persist through Sunday morning. As the low moves northeastward into the north Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for the eastern Dominican Republic: A broad surface trough extends northeastward from the southwestern Caribbean Sea across the eastern tip of Cuba to beyond the Turks and Caicos Islands. Convergent southerly winds east of the trough axis continue to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across eastern Dominican Republic through Sunday. Heavy downpours from these thunderstorms can cause urban flooding and flash flooding along smaller streams and rivers, and increase the potential for mudslides in hilly terrain. Please consult products from your local weather office. Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Residual large northerly swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic will maintain 11 to 12 ft seas north of 23N between 39W and 51W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds are also found in this area. This swell will decay further on Sun afternoon, which should allow seas to drop below 11 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal/Gambia border and extends southwestward to 08N19W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N19W across 06N30W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone-Liberia coast and 17W. Similar convection is present up to 250 nm north, and 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W and 36W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea, south of 12N near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the west-central Gulf near 25N93W, then continues westward as a stationary front to near the Texas-Mexico border. A surface trough is moving southward into the Bay of Campeche. Widely scattered showers are seen near and behind the frontal boundary, and near the trough at the south-central Gulf. A 1014 mb high at the western Bay of Campeche is providing light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft for the southwestern and west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the weak cold front is expected to dissipate Sun. High pressure currently over Texas will build southeastward in its wake, and promote mainly gentle N winds across the Gulf Sun afternoon before becoming easterly by Sun night. Southerly winds will form Mon and increase to fresh in the western Gulf. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, with gales expected to develop over the west-central and southwestern Gulf Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build and reach 14 to 16 ft across the southwestern Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rain and flooding potential for the eastern Dominican Republic. A surface trough runs eastward from the Gulf of Honduras to a 1009 mb low south of the Cayman Islands at 17N81W. Widely scattered showers are noted near these features. A broad surface trough extends northeastward from a 1008 mb low offshore from northwestern Colombia near 12N76W to beyond the eastern tip of Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the low, while scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are seen south of the eastern Dominican Republic to near 14N. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are present offshore from the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and from northwestern Colombia near Barranquilla. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Yucatan Peninsula/northern Central America and the low south of the Cayman Islands will continue to support fresh with locally strong W to NW winds offshore from the Honduras-Nicaragua border through Sun morning. The broad surface trough and associated low will remain over the southwestern and central Caribbean through Tue. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore from northwestern Colombia are expected to last into Sun morning ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Gales in the western Atlantic, and large north swell in the central Atlantic. A broad surface trough extends northeastward from the eastern tip of Cuba across the Turks and Caicos Islands to near 30N68W. Convergent southerly winds east of the trough axis are coupling with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 20N between 62W and 72W. Another surface trough reaches southwestward from a 1003 mb low north of the central Bahamas near 28N74W across the northwest Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 27N and west of 72W. A cold front curves southwestward from southeast of the Azores across 31N28W to near 26N34W, then continues westward as a stationary front to near 24N50W. Widely scattered showers are evident near and up to 230 nm north of the stationary front. Similar conditions are found up to 130 nm along either side of the cold front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside from the areas described in the Special Features section: Moderate to fresh WSW to NNW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N west of 70W. Fresh to strong SE to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted from 20N to 27N between 50W and 70W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas in large northerly swell exist north of 14N between the Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical central Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned 1003 mb low and related surface trough will move north of area overnight with fresh NW to N winds in its wake. Also, S winds will gradually diminish ahead of the trough. $$ Chan