000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is centered near 18.7N 77.7W at 17/2100 UTC or 20 nm NE of Montego Bay Jamaica, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 12 ft are within 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery shows this system is rather elongated in appearance resembling a trough. Its associated convection has diminished during the past few hours. The satellite imagery depicts the ongoing convection of mainly scattered moderate type intensity over the central Caribbean from 15N to 20N between 72W-78W and over the southwestern Caribbean from 10N to 15N between 78W-82W. Numerous scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is well to the east of the system over Hispaniola. The system is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast during the weekend, with the forecast track taking it across southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sat morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in areas of heavy rain, across southeastern Cuba and Haiti through tonight, and over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sat. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce additional total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and southern Hispaniola through Sun. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Sat. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1004 mb low is centered just N of the NW Bahamas near 28N80W. A warm front extends eastward-southeastward from the low to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues into the central Atlantic. A cold front extends southward from the low to just north of central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the warm front between 78W-79W. A large area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded scattered showers is seen north of 24N between from 67W-75W. Isolated showers are north of 24N between 75W-79W. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure located to its northeast has resulted in a broad area of east to southeast gale force winds to 35 kt northeast of the low north of 29N and between 70W-77W and from 27N to 29N between 70W-75W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 10-15 ft. The low is forecast to be shift to just north of the area tonight with winds diminishing below gale force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant N Swell Event: A large storm well to the northeast of the discussion area has generated large northerly swell. The swell has propagated into the region reaching near 20N. The seas are reaching to 15 ft north of 23N between 40W-60W and north of 28N north between 30W-40W per latest altimeter data passes. The highest seas are forecast to peak to around 18 feet near 30N40W. The swell will decay gradually during the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 07N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N20W and to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of a line from 07N31W to 07N36W to 06N41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1004 mb low is centered near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough extends from the low to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and northwestward to 23N94W and to 26N95W. No significant convection is noted. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are over the west central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are over the north central and east- central sections of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf from the east central and west central sections. Moderate or lighter winds are over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the weak low will continue to move southward across the south-central Gulf waters, and now it is located over the NE of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and open up into a trough. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, producing gentle to moderate north winds on Sat. Winds will veer to the east and southeast on Sun. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf later on Sun ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast late Mon into Tue. Gale conditions are possible in the wake of the front over the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf Tue through Wed with seas likely building of up to 14 or 15 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two and associated convection. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds and moderate to rough seas are over some areas of the sea between 65W-80W. Slight seas are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two per a partial ASCAT pass. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 18.7N 77.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to 20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W Sun morning, become extratropical and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. As this system moves north area on Sat, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the central Caribbean through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning, and a significant N swell event that is ongoing in the north-central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from near 31N31W to 27N40W and to 24N60W, where it transitions to a warm front that extends northwestward to a 1004 mb low near 29N80W. Clusters of numerous showers and thunderstorms moving northeastward are confined to south of 24N between 67W-75W. A surface trough is analyzed from near 25N39W to 20N50W to 19N59W. Areas of rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen moving eastward from 29N to 31N between 33W-39W. High pressure is present north of the cold/stationary/warm front boundaries. A tight gradient north of the boundaries is allowing for strong to near gale northeast to east winds over those waters, mainly between the cold front and 60W. Recent altimeter data passes indicates seas in the range of 12-15 ft north of the cold front. High pressure cover the eastern Atlantic east of the cold front and surface trough north of about 19N. Moderate seas are east of these features. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1004 mb centered just N of the NW Bahamas near 28N80W is producing a wide area of easterly gales to the NE of the center, mainly N of 29N between 70W and 77W, and from 27N to 29N between 70W and 75W. This low will be just N of the area by tonight with winds diminishing below gale force. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 18.7N 77.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to 20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W Sun morning, become extratropical and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. $$ Aguirre