000 AXNT20 KNHC 171805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two... The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, at 17/1800 UTC, is near 18.0N 78.5W, or about 85 km/46 nm to the SW of Montego Bay in Jamaica, and about 425 km/229 nm to the SW of Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The system is moving NE, or 050 degrees, 14 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 20N between 72W and 76W, and in the Windward Passage. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere between 70W and 84W. A continued NE motion is expected today, with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. The disturbance will pass near Jamaica today, eastern Cuba tonight, and the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas Sat. The disturbance is likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Very heavy rain from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, SE Cuba, and Hispaniola through Mon evening. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding, with mudslides also possible in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Gale Warning Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas... Expect: gale-force E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 17 feet, to the north of the line 25N65W 27N74W 28N80W. Elsewhere: expect winds 20 knots or less, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 12 feet primarily in N to NE swell, from 19N northward from 60W westward, and to the east of the Bahamas. A cold front passes through 31N34W, to 27N40W to 22N52W. The front becomes stationary at 22N52W, and it continues to 28N71W. The front becomes warm at 28N71W, and it continues to the 1004 mb 28N80W along the Florida east coast. A cold front extends from the 28N80W low pressure center to west central Cuba. A surface trough is within 120 nm to 240 nm to the south and to the southeast of the frontal boundary from 58W eastward. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow is from the frontal boundary northward between 40W and 67W. Near gale-force cyclonic winds are from the frontal boundary northward between 70W and 75W. Some fresh winds, and mostly moderate or slower winds, are from the frontal boundary southward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 60W westward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Significant N Swell Event... Significant N Swell Event: A low pressure center, that is well to the north of our area, has generated northerly swell. The N swell has propagated into the region, reaching 20N. The sea heights now are higher than 12 feet, from 23N northward between 40W and 60W, and from 28N northward between 30W and 40W. The highest seas are forecast to range from 16 feet to 18 feet near 30N40W. The swell will decay gradually during the weekend. The seas will continue to be 12 feet or higher through Saturday. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N35W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N southward from 47W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, is near an upper level trough, that is in the area that is bounded by the points: 02N50W, 17N27W, 21N33W, 13N60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 24N88W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, eastward, toward the Florida Keys. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong spans the Gulf. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are in the west central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the north central sections, and in the east central sections. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf from the east central parts to the west central parts. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. A 1004 mb low pressure is centered in the south central Gulf of Mexico near 24N88W, with a trough extending eastward from the low to the Florida Keys. The trough will dissipate while the low moves southward into tonight. Fresh E winds to the north of the trough will gradually diminish today. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less through the weekend. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast Mon into Tue. Gale conditions are possible in the wake of the front over the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. Fresh to strong E to SE winds, and moderate to rough seas, cover the areas that are from the central part of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea to 80W. The comparatively highest seas are about 270 nm to the NE of NE Nicaragua, and about 180 nm to the SW of W Jamaica. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the rest of the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh NW winds are on the western side of the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is on the southern side of the monsoon trough. The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 4.37 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.69 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.19 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 17.5N 79.1W at 10 AM EST, and is moving northeast at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to 19.3N 76.8W this evening, will be N of area near 21.9N 73.3W Sat morning, 25.2N 68.9W Sat evening, become extratropical and move to 28.3N 64.8W Sun morning, 31.8N 61.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning, and a significant N swell event that is in the north central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 31N34W, to 27N40W to 22N52W. The front becomes stationary at 22N52W, and it continues to 28N71W. The front becomes warm at 28N71W, and it continues to the 1004 mb 28N80W along the Florida east coast. A cold front extends from the 28N80W low pressure center to west central Cuba. A surface trough is within 120 nm to 240 nm to the south and to the southeast of the frontal boundary from 58W eastward. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow is from the frontal boundary northward between 40W and 67W. Near gale-force cyclonic winds are from the frontal boundary northward between 70W and 75W. Some fresh winds, and mostly moderate or slower winds, are from the frontal boundary southward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 60W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from the cold front eastward, with a surface ridge. Fresh to moderate NE winds, and moderate seas, cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Low pressure of 1004 mb centered just N of the NW Bahamas near 28N80W is producing a wide area of easterly gales to the NE of the center, from 27N to 31N, W of 70W. This low will move NNE today and will be N of the area by tonight. Gales will continue to the north and east of the center through tonight. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 17.5N 79.1W at 10 AM EST, and is moving northeast at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two will move to 19.3N 76.8W this evening, 21.9N 73.3W Sat morning, 25.2N 68.9W Sat evening, become extratropical and move to 28.3N 64.8W Sun morning, 31.8N 61.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. $$ mt/al