000 AXNT20 KNHC 170557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 16.0N 80.8W at 1 AM EST, and is moving north-northeast at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located over the eastern semicircle, especially between 72W and 82W. Seas to the east of the center are peaking near 8 ft. A northeastward motion is expected to begin early Friday, with increasing forward speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica on Friday, southeastern Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure is centered near Freeport, Bahamas. A warm front extends eastward from the low to 26N71W, where it meets a stationary front that continues into the central Atlantic. A cold front extends southward from the low, across west-central Cuba, and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring over the NE quadrant. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured gale force winds from 26N to 30N and between 72W and 80W. Seas of 12-19 ft are noted in the area described. The low will move NNE and move N of the area Fri evening carrying gale force winds on its path. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas, however, will continue to affect the NE offshore waters through the remainder weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant N Swell Event: A storm system that is well to the north of our area is generating wave heights of 12-17 ft, from 25N northward and between 37W and 61W. The seas will continue to spread eastward and southward, reaching 23N by Friday morning. Seas will gradually subside late Fri into Sat, decreasing below 12 ft Sat night into Sun. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ stretches from 07N18W to 04N35W and to 05N52W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present north of the ITCZ to 08N and between 31W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening low pressure of 1006 mb is located near 25N89W on a southward track. A surface trough extends from SW Florida to the low center. A dry continental airmass encompasses the entire Gulf of Mexico, suppressing the development of deep convection. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly winds north of the 24N and east of 92W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, 1006 mb low pressure is centered in the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N89W, with a trough extending eastward from the low to to the Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate while the low moves southward through Fri. Fresh to locally strong E winds to the north of the trough will gradually diminish into Fri. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less through the weekend. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. Aside from Potential T.C. Twenty-Two, a few showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean Sea, while generally dry air envelops the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave heights in the 5-7 ft range are found in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 15.9N 81.1W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two become a tropical depression near 16.9N 80.0W Fri morning, and a tropical storm near 18.7N 77.7W Fri evening. Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 20.8N 75.0W Sat morning, 23.9N 71.3W Sat evening, then become extratropical and move to 27.6N 66.7W Sun morning, and 31.9N 62.0W Sun evening. Twenty-Two will dissipate late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning, a significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. Aside from the Special Features mentioned above, a cold front extends from 31N35W to 22N52W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues to just east of the Bahamas. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The pressure gradient between the 1028 mb high pressure system east of Bermuda and lower pressures associated with these fronts and the gale-force low in the Bahamas, strong to near gale-force easterly winds are occurring north of the fronts and west of 62W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are found in the area remaining north of the fronts. The seas are described in the Special Features section. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of stationary front and west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging that sustains moderate to fresh trade south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, Low pressure centered just N of the NW Bahamas is producing a wide area of gale force winds from 26N to 30N W of 72W. The low will move NNE and move N of the area late Fri. Gale force winds will continue with this low into Fri night. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is near 15.9N 81.1W at 10 PM EST, and is moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Twenty-Two become a tropical depression near 16.9N 80.0W Fri morning, and a tropical storm near 18.7N 77.7W Fri evening. Tropical Storm Twenty-Two will reach 20.8N 75.0W Sat morning, 23.9N 71.3W Sat evening, then become extratropical and move to 27.6N 66.7W Sun morning, and 31.9N 62.0W Sun evening. Twenty-Two will dissipate late Mon. $$ Delgado