000 AXNT20 KNHC 160527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system is centered near 27N88W. An occluded front extends SE from the low to 25N85W. A cold front extends southward from 25N85W to the Yucatan Channel, while a stationary front extends westward from 25N85W to a 1009 mb low near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers are noted north of the low. Strong to near gale-force winds with gusts to gale-force are found north 26N and east of 92W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Near-gale winds and rough seas will continue through Thu across the NE Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible through tonight. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A 1009 mb low pressure system has formed near the Upper Florida Keys. A warm front extends eastward from the low to the central Bahamas, while a stationary front extends westward into the SE Gulf. Numerous to scattered showers are found west of 70W, with the deepest convection affecting South Florida and surrounding waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured 30-40 kt easterly winds off SE Florida. A tight pressure gradient also result in strong to near gale-force winds over most of the SW North Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Gale-force winds will spread northward, persisting north of 27N and west of 65W through Fri, and supporting seas of 12-18 ft. The gales will lift N of 31N Fri evening, while seas gradually subside. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the gales. Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A 1008 mb low pressure system near 13N82W is producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convecting from 12N to 18N and between 74W and 83W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are associated with the deep convection. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Significant N swell event: A storm system well north of our area is producing seas of 12-15 ft north of 29N and between 45W and 62W. Seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. Peak seas will build to 18 ft north of 30N late Thursday into Friday. 12 ft seas will drift mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday morning. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues to be analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N33W and to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 43W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force low pressure system in the NE Gulf. In the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclonic flow result in continental dry air filtering southward and encompassing most of the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found west and south of the non-tropical gale-force low. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 are noted in the SE Gulf. For the forecast, an occluded front extends from 1008 mb low pres near 28N88W to 25N85W then cold front to the Yucatan channel. The low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Near-gale winds and rough seas will continue through Thu across the NE Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible through tonight. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details on Invest 98L and the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea. Aside for Invest 98L, no deep convection is noted in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures in northern South America and SW Caribbean support fresh to strong easterly winds prevail across the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late Thu. AL98 is a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system will produce areas of heavy rain, and locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and western Caribbean through the end of this week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning and a significant N swell event in the north-central Atlantic. In the rest of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N44W to 25N55W and to 23N66W, where it transitions into a stationary front that continuous to the gale-force low near the Florida Keys described in the Special Features section. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring behind the fronts as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. These winds also support seas of 8-16 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N53W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found north of 27N and between 36W and the cold front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered off Portugal. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 17N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 11N46W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends from 31N44W to the central Bahamas to the Florida Keys. A 1009 mb low pres has formed near the Florida Keys. Gale force winds will develop tonight east of Florida as the low move slowly northeastward along the front. Gale force winds will then persist north of 27N and west of 65W Thu afternoon through Fri, before lifting N of 31N Fri evening. $$ Delgado